Prediction of Dropout in Physical Activity: The Effect of Time.

Background: Leisure-time physical activity is the preferred domain by the population to follow physical activity recommendations, helping to maintain a healthy lifestyle. However, the main issue in this type of physical activity intervention is massive dropout.

Methods: Using monthly data from 20,908 leisure/fitness center members (2011-2016), we estimate a discrete-time duration model to examine how membership duration influences dropout probability, addressing cross-sectional limitations. Additionally, we assess the explanatory power of different covariate groups.

Results: Dropout probability follows a seasonal pattern, peaking within the first 3 months before declining and stabilizing over time. Short-term memberships and low attendance frequency significantly increase dropout risk, confirming that membership conditions and time-related variables are key predictors of retention. Additionally, macroeconomic factors particularly unemployment play a crucial role in increasing dropout probability.

Conclusions: These results could help both recreational facility managers and policymakers to design strategies to reduce dropout among physical activity practitioners, in particular, in the current situation generated by the COVID-19 crisis.