{"title":"不一致多元时间序列预测","authors":"Li Shen;Yangzhu Wang;Xuyi Fan;Xu Yang;Huaxin Qiu","doi":"10.1109/TKDE.2025.3556940","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Traditional statistical time series forecasting models rely on model identification methods to identify the worthiest model variants to investigate; therefore, the model parameters change with the statistical features of rolling windows to reach optimality. Currently, although deep-learning-based methods achieve promising multivariate forecasting performance, their representations of variable correlations are consistent regardless of the observed local time series properties and dynamic cross-variable relations, rendering them prone to overfitting. To bridge this gap, we propose FPPformer-MD, a novel inconsistent time series forecasting transformer. FPPformer-MD leverages multiresolution analysis to transform each univariate series into multiple frequency scales and evaluate the local variable correlations via their variances. Thus, FPPformer-MD receives richer input features, and its inner inconsistent cross-variable attention mechanism enables the adaptive extraction of cross-variable features. To further alleviate the overfitting problem, we apply dynamic mode decomposition to perform cross-variable data augmentation, which reconstructs the sequence outliers with other correlated sequences during the model training process. Extensive experiments conducted on thirteen real-world benchmarks demonstrate the state-of-the-art performance of FPPformer-MD.","PeriodicalId":13496,"journal":{"name":"IEEE Transactions on Knowledge and Data Engineering","volume":"37 7","pages":"4117-4130"},"PeriodicalIF":10.4000,"publicationDate":"2025-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Inconsistent Multivariate Time Series Forecasting\",\"authors\":\"Li Shen;Yangzhu Wang;Xuyi Fan;Xu Yang;Huaxin Qiu\",\"doi\":\"10.1109/TKDE.2025.3556940\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"Traditional statistical time series forecasting models rely on model identification methods to identify the worthiest model variants to investigate; therefore, the model parameters change with the statistical features of rolling windows to reach optimality. Currently, although deep-learning-based methods achieve promising multivariate forecasting performance, their representations of variable correlations are consistent regardless of the observed local time series properties and dynamic cross-variable relations, rendering them prone to overfitting. To bridge this gap, we propose FPPformer-MD, a novel inconsistent time series forecasting transformer. FPPformer-MD leverages multiresolution analysis to transform each univariate series into multiple frequency scales and evaluate the local variable correlations via their variances. Thus, FPPformer-MD receives richer input features, and its inner inconsistent cross-variable attention mechanism enables the adaptive extraction of cross-variable features. To further alleviate the overfitting problem, we apply dynamic mode decomposition to perform cross-variable data augmentation, which reconstructs the sequence outliers with other correlated sequences during the model training process. Extensive experiments conducted on thirteen real-world benchmarks demonstrate the state-of-the-art performance of FPPformer-MD.\",\"PeriodicalId\":13496,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"IEEE Transactions on Knowledge and Data Engineering\",\"volume\":\"37 7\",\"pages\":\"4117-4130\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":10.4000,\"publicationDate\":\"2025-04-01\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"IEEE Transactions on Knowledge and Data Engineering\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"94\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/10946844/\",\"RegionNum\":2,\"RegionCategory\":\"计算机科学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"COMPUTER SCIENCE, ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"IEEE Transactions on Knowledge and Data Engineering","FirstCategoryId":"94","ListUrlMain":"https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/10946844/","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"计算机科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"COMPUTER SCIENCE, ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE","Score":null,"Total":0}
Traditional statistical time series forecasting models rely on model identification methods to identify the worthiest model variants to investigate; therefore, the model parameters change with the statistical features of rolling windows to reach optimality. Currently, although deep-learning-based methods achieve promising multivariate forecasting performance, their representations of variable correlations are consistent regardless of the observed local time series properties and dynamic cross-variable relations, rendering them prone to overfitting. To bridge this gap, we propose FPPformer-MD, a novel inconsistent time series forecasting transformer. FPPformer-MD leverages multiresolution analysis to transform each univariate series into multiple frequency scales and evaluate the local variable correlations via their variances. Thus, FPPformer-MD receives richer input features, and its inner inconsistent cross-variable attention mechanism enables the adaptive extraction of cross-variable features. To further alleviate the overfitting problem, we apply dynamic mode decomposition to perform cross-variable data augmentation, which reconstructs the sequence outliers with other correlated sequences during the model training process. Extensive experiments conducted on thirteen real-world benchmarks demonstrate the state-of-the-art performance of FPPformer-MD.
期刊介绍:
The IEEE Transactions on Knowledge and Data Engineering encompasses knowledge and data engineering aspects within computer science, artificial intelligence, electrical engineering, computer engineering, and related fields. It provides an interdisciplinary platform for disseminating new developments in knowledge and data engineering and explores the practicality of these concepts in both hardware and software. Specific areas covered include knowledge-based and expert systems, AI techniques for knowledge and data management, tools, and methodologies, distributed processing, real-time systems, architectures, data management practices, database design, query languages, security, fault tolerance, statistical databases, algorithms, performance evaluation, and applications.