{"title":"扩展多元EGARCH模型:一个零收益和负溢出的模型","authors":"Yongdeng Xu","doi":"10.1002/for.3243","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p>This paper introduces an extended multivariate EGARCH model that overcomes the zero-return problem and allows for negative news and volatility spillover effects, making it an attractive tool for multivariate volatility modeling. Despite limitations, such as noninvertibility and unclear asymptotic properties of the QML estimator, our Monte Carlo simulations indicate that the standard QML estimator is consistent and asymptotically normal for larger sample sizes (i.e., \n<span></span><math>\n <mi>T</mi>\n <mo>≥</mo>\n <mn>2500</mn></math>). Two empirical examples demonstrate the model's superior performance compared to multivariate GJR-GARCH and Log-GARCH models in volatility modeling. The first example analyzes the daily returns of three stocks from the DJ30 index, while the second example investigates volatility spillover effects among the bond, stock, crude oil, and gold markets. Overall, this extended multivariate EGARCH model offers a flexible and comprehensive framework for analyzing multivariate volatility and spillover effects in empirical finance research.</p>","PeriodicalId":47835,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Forecasting","volume":"44 4","pages":"1266-1279"},"PeriodicalIF":2.7000,"publicationDate":"2024-12-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/for.3243","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Extended Multivariate EGARCH Model: A Model for Zero-Return and Negative Spillovers\",\"authors\":\"Yongdeng Xu\",\"doi\":\"10.1002/for.3243\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p>This paper introduces an extended multivariate EGARCH model that overcomes the zero-return problem and allows for negative news and volatility spillover effects, making it an attractive tool for multivariate volatility modeling. Despite limitations, such as noninvertibility and unclear asymptotic properties of the QML estimator, our Monte Carlo simulations indicate that the standard QML estimator is consistent and asymptotically normal for larger sample sizes (i.e., \\n<span></span><math>\\n <mi>T</mi>\\n <mo>≥</mo>\\n <mn>2500</mn></math>). Two empirical examples demonstrate the model's superior performance compared to multivariate GJR-GARCH and Log-GARCH models in volatility modeling. The first example analyzes the daily returns of three stocks from the DJ30 index, while the second example investigates volatility spillover effects among the bond, stock, crude oil, and gold markets. Overall, this extended multivariate EGARCH model offers a flexible and comprehensive framework for analyzing multivariate volatility and spillover effects in empirical finance research.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":47835,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Journal of Forecasting\",\"volume\":\"44 4\",\"pages\":\"1266-1279\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":2.7000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-12-08\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/for.3243\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Journal of Forecasting\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"96\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/for.3243\",\"RegionNum\":3,\"RegionCategory\":\"经济学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"ECONOMICS\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Journal of Forecasting","FirstCategoryId":"96","ListUrlMain":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/for.3243","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"ECONOMICS","Score":null,"Total":0}
Extended Multivariate EGARCH Model: A Model for Zero-Return and Negative Spillovers
This paper introduces an extended multivariate EGARCH model that overcomes the zero-return problem and allows for negative news and volatility spillover effects, making it an attractive tool for multivariate volatility modeling. Despite limitations, such as noninvertibility and unclear asymptotic properties of the QML estimator, our Monte Carlo simulations indicate that the standard QML estimator is consistent and asymptotically normal for larger sample sizes (i.e.,
). Two empirical examples demonstrate the model's superior performance compared to multivariate GJR-GARCH and Log-GARCH models in volatility modeling. The first example analyzes the daily returns of three stocks from the DJ30 index, while the second example investigates volatility spillover effects among the bond, stock, crude oil, and gold markets. Overall, this extended multivariate EGARCH model offers a flexible and comprehensive framework for analyzing multivariate volatility and spillover effects in empirical finance research.
期刊介绍:
The Journal of Forecasting is an international journal that publishes refereed papers on forecasting. It is multidisciplinary, welcoming papers dealing with any aspect of forecasting: theoretical, practical, computational and methodological. A broad interpretation of the topic is taken with approaches from various subject areas, such as statistics, economics, psychology, systems engineering and social sciences, all encouraged. Furthermore, the Journal welcomes a wide diversity of applications in such fields as business, government, technology and the environment. Of particular interest are papers dealing with modelling issues and the relationship of forecasting systems to decision-making processes.