Choh Man Teng, Peter Pirolli, Archna Bhatia, Kathleen Carley, Bonnie Dorr, Christian Lebiere, Brodie Mather, Konstantinos Mitsopoulos, Don Morrison, Mark Orr, Tomek Strzalkowski
{"title":"利用心理有效因子预测三波新冠肺炎期间美国人每日佩戴口罩和保持社交距离","authors":"Choh Man Teng, Peter Pirolli, Archna Bhatia, Kathleen Carley, Bonnie Dorr, Christian Lebiere, Brodie Mather, Konstantinos Mitsopoulos, Don Morrison, Mark Orr, Tomek Strzalkowski","doi":"10.3389/fepid.2025.1532553","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>We present Regional Psychologically Valid Agents (R-PVAs) as a modeling approach to predicting transmission-reducing behaviors and epidemiology. The approach builds upon computational cognitive theory and formalizes aspects of theories of individual-level behavior change. We present R-PVA models of social distancing and mask wearing in response to dynamics in the physical and information environments in the 50 U.S. states. The models achieve strong goodness-of-fits for predicting day-to-day mask-wearing (<i>R</i> <sup>2</sup> = 0.93) and social distancing (<i>R</i> <sup>2</sup> = 0.62) for the first three waves of COVID-19, prior to the rollout of vaccines.</p>","PeriodicalId":73083,"journal":{"name":"Frontiers in epidemiology","volume":"5 ","pages":"1532553"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2025-05-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12116573/pdf/","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Prediction of U.S. daily mask wearing and social distancing using psychologically valid agents during three waves of COVID-19.\",\"authors\":\"Choh Man Teng, Peter Pirolli, Archna Bhatia, Kathleen Carley, Bonnie Dorr, Christian Lebiere, Brodie Mather, Konstantinos Mitsopoulos, Don Morrison, Mark Orr, Tomek Strzalkowski\",\"doi\":\"10.3389/fepid.2025.1532553\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p><p>We present Regional Psychologically Valid Agents (R-PVAs) as a modeling approach to predicting transmission-reducing behaviors and epidemiology. The approach builds upon computational cognitive theory and formalizes aspects of theories of individual-level behavior change. We present R-PVA models of social distancing and mask wearing in response to dynamics in the physical and information environments in the 50 U.S. states. The models achieve strong goodness-of-fits for predicting day-to-day mask-wearing (<i>R</i> <sup>2</sup> = 0.93) and social distancing (<i>R</i> <sup>2</sup> = 0.62) for the first three waves of COVID-19, prior to the rollout of vaccines.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":73083,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Frontiers in epidemiology\",\"volume\":\"5 \",\"pages\":\"1532553\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2025-05-14\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12116573/pdf/\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Frontiers in epidemiology\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.3389/fepid.2025.1532553\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"2025/1/1 0:00:00\",\"PubModel\":\"eCollection\",\"JCR\":\"\",\"JCRName\":\"\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Frontiers in epidemiology","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.3389/fepid.2025.1532553","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"2025/1/1 0:00:00","PubModel":"eCollection","JCR":"","JCRName":"","Score":null,"Total":0}
Prediction of U.S. daily mask wearing and social distancing using psychologically valid agents during three waves of COVID-19.
We present Regional Psychologically Valid Agents (R-PVAs) as a modeling approach to predicting transmission-reducing behaviors and epidemiology. The approach builds upon computational cognitive theory and formalizes aspects of theories of individual-level behavior change. We present R-PVA models of social distancing and mask wearing in response to dynamics in the physical and information environments in the 50 U.S. states. The models achieve strong goodness-of-fits for predicting day-to-day mask-wearing (R2 = 0.93) and social distancing (R2 = 0.62) for the first three waves of COVID-19, prior to the rollout of vaccines.
求助内容：
应助结果提醒方式：
京公网安备 11010802042870号
