Joel Kandiah , Edwin van Leeuwen , Paul J. Birrell , Daniela De Angelis
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Contact data and SARS-CoV-2: Retrospective analysis of the estimated impact of the first UK lockdown
To combat the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in March 2020 the United Kingdom (UK) announced a series of restrictions on social interaction, culminating with the introduction of lockdown measures. Estimation of lockdown effectiveness using pandemic models relied on the availability of contact data and choices on how to structure models accordingly.
We revisit the Cambridge/Public Health England real-time model (RTM), which was routinely implemented during the pandemic to monitor its development and produce short-term projections. To derive contact matrices, Google Mobility weekly contact data and school attendance data from the Department for Education were combined with information from the POLYMOD study and the UK Time Use Survey. These matrices were combined with susceptibility and transmissibility parameters to estimate effective reproduction numbers, which were taken as indicators of transmission trends.
We explore alternative formulations of the RTM, which make fuller use of the available contact data, and assess the impact of each formulation on the conclusions of lockdown effectiveness. Results show that the estimated impact of the lockdown remains unchanged, but also uncover previously uncaptured early epidemic dynamics. This highlights the importance of the timely availability of contact data in understanding transmission dynamics during the early stages of an epidemic and assessing the effectiveness of interventions.
期刊介绍:
The Journal of Theoretical Biology is the leading forum for theoretical perspectives that give insight into biological processes. It covers a very wide range of topics and is of interest to biologists in many areas of research, including:
• Brain and Neuroscience
• Cancer Growth and Treatment
• Cell Biology
• Developmental Biology
• Ecology
• Evolution
• Immunology,
• Infectious and non-infectious Diseases,
• Mathematical, Computational, Biophysical and Statistical Modeling
• Microbiology, Molecular Biology, and Biochemistry
• Networks and Complex Systems
• Physiology
• Pharmacodynamics
• Animal Behavior and Game Theory
Acceptable papers are those that bear significant importance on the biology per se being presented, and not on the mathematical analysis. Papers that include some data or experimental material bearing on theory will be considered, including those that contain comparative study, statistical data analysis, mathematical proof, computer simulations, experiments, field observations, or even philosophical arguments, which are all methods to support or reject theoretical ideas. However, there should be a concerted effort to make papers intelligible to biologists in the chosen field.