MTMD:股票趋势预测的多尺度时间记忆学习和有效去偏框架

IF 5.3 3区 计算机科学 Q1 COMPUTER SCIENCE, ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE
Mingjie Wang;Juanxi Tian;Mingze Zhang;Jianxiong Guo;Weijia Jia
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引用次数: 0

摘要

股票趋势预测的工作主要集中在预测股票市场的未来轨迹,利用人工或技术方法来优化盈利能力。机器学习技术的最新进展已经展示了它们在股票趋势预测领域识别真实利润信号的功效,主要使用从历史股票价格模式中获得的时间数据。然而,股票市场固有的波动性和动态特征使得学习和捕获多尺度时间依赖性和稳定的交易机会成为一项艰巨的挑战。这种困境主要是由于难以在大量混杂、嘈杂的数据中区分真正的利润信号模式。针对这些复杂性,我们提出了一个多尺度时间记忆学习和有效去偏(MTMD)模型。这种创新的方法包括创建一个可学习的嵌入与外部注意相结合,通过自相似性作为记忆模块。它旨在减轻噪声干扰并增强模型内的时间一致性。MTMD模型巧妙地合并了每个时间戳的综合本地数据,同时关注全球范围内的显著历史模式。此外,该方法还结合了一个能够吸收全局和局部信息的图网络,促进了异构多尺度数据的自适应融合。严格的消融研究和实验评估证实,在基准数据集中,MTMD模型在很大程度上超过了当代最先进的方法。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
MTMD: Multi-Scale Temporal Memory Learning and Efficient Debiasing Framework for Stock Trend Forecasting
The endeavor of stock trend forecasting is principally focused on predicting the future trajectory of the stock market, utilizing either manual or technical methodologies to optimize profitability. Recent advancements in machine learning technologies have showcased their efficacy in discerning authentic profit signals within the realm of stock trend forecasting, predominantly employing temporal data derived from historical stock price patterns. Nevertheless, the inherently volatile and dynamic characteristics of the stock market render the learning and capture of multi-scale temporal dependencies and stable trading opportunities a formidable challenge. This predicament is primarily attributed to the difficulty in distinguishing real profit signal patterns amidst a plethora of mixed, noisy data. In response to these complexities, we propose a Multi-Scale Temporal Memory Learning and Efficient Debiasing (MTMD) model. This innovative approach encompasses the creation of a learnable embedding coupled with external attention, serving as a memory module through self-similarity. It aims to mitigate noise interference and bolster temporal consistency within the model. The MTMD model adeptly amalgamates comprehensive local data at each timestamp while concurrently focusing on salient historical patterns on a global scale. Furthermore, the incorporation of a graph network, tailored to assimilate global and local information, facilitates the adaptive fusion of heterogeneous multi-scale data. Rigorous ablation studies and experimental evaluations affirm that the MTMD model surpasses contemporary state-of-the-art methodologies by a substantial margin in benchmark datasets.
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来源期刊
CiteScore
10.30
自引率
7.50%
发文量
147
期刊介绍: The IEEE Transactions on Emerging Topics in Computational Intelligence (TETCI) publishes original articles on emerging aspects of computational intelligence, including theory, applications, and surveys. TETCI is an electronics only publication. TETCI publishes six issues per year. Authors are encouraged to submit manuscripts in any emerging topic in computational intelligence, especially nature-inspired computing topics not covered by other IEEE Computational Intelligence Society journals. A few such illustrative examples are glial cell networks, computational neuroscience, Brain Computer Interface, ambient intelligence, non-fuzzy computing with words, artificial life, cultural learning, artificial endocrine networks, social reasoning, artificial hormone networks, computational intelligence for the IoT and Smart-X technologies.
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