Beyond Accuracy: Evaluating certainty of AI models for brain tumour detection

Brain tumors pose a severe health risk, often leading to fatal outcomes if not detected early. While most studies focus on improving classification accuracy, this research emphasizes prediction certainty, quantified through loss values. Traditional metrics like accuracy and precision do not capture confidence in predictions, which is critical for medical applications. This study establishes a correlation between lower loss values and higher prediction certainty, ensuring more reliable tumor classification.

We evaluate CNN, ResNet50, XceptionNet, and a Proposed Model (VGG19 with customized classification layers) using accuracy, precision, recall, and loss. Results show that while accuracy remains comparable across models, the Proposed Model achieves the best performance (96.95 % accuracy, 0.087 loss), outperforming others in both precision and recall. These findings demonstrate that certainty-aware AI models are essential for reliable clinical decision-making.

This study highlights the potential of AI to bridge the shortage of medical professionals by integrating reliable diagnostic tools in healthcare. AI-powered systems can enhance early detection and improve patient outcomes, reinforcing the need for certainty-driven AI adoption in medical imaging.