Modeling Future Lehmann Lovegrass (Eragrostis lehmanniana) Distribution in Texas and Adjacent Areas

Lehmann lovegrass is non-native in North America and has recently been expanding its distribution with potentially detrimental effects for native plants and compounding ecological ramifications in the southwest United States. This grass has a low palatability for livestock and can create connecting fuel corridors in historically discontinuous landscapes, creating potential for novel fires. We collected publicly available geographic locations for this species in the eastern portion of its Texas range and developed maximum entropy models to determine potential range expansion through several climate change scenarios. We found that Lehmann lovegrass is likely to expand significantly in all projected models, suggesting concerns for species conservation and livestock production in the more arid areas of the study, which are expected to suffer more intense and prolonged drought episodes in the rest of the 21st century.