From sci-fi to reality: exploring user satisfaction and loyalty toward autonomous vehicle services through an extended expectation-confirmation model

China has recently permitted autonomous vehicle (AV) companies to offer fully driverless ride-hailing services to the public, marking a significant milestone toward vehicles operating entirely without human intervention. As these services continue to expand across major cities, it becomes increasingly important to understand the factors that influence user satisfaction during the post-adoption stage, as well as the outcomes for AV service providers. To this end, this study proposes an extended expectation-confirmation model (ECM) that integrates key constructs from the unified theory of acceptance and use of technology (UTAUT2), coolness theory, perceived security, satisfaction, brand love, and loyalty. Data were collected from 489 actual AV users in China through purposive sampling and analyzed using partial least squares structural equation modeling (PLS-SEM) and fuzzy set qualitative comparative analysis (fsQCA). The results show that expectation confirmation, performance expectancy, effort expectancy, facilitating conditions, hedonic motivation, price value, perceived security, attractiveness, subcultural appeal, and originality significantly influence user satisfaction—with performance expectancy, subcultural appeal, and perceived security emerging as the most influential factors. Furthermore, satisfaction drives brand love, which in turn fosters brand loyalty. The proposed model accounts for 72.1 % of the variance in user satisfaction, while fsQCA identifies four distinct configurations leading to high and low satisfaction. This study contributes to AV research by shifting the focus from adoption intentions to post-adoption experiences, integrating both rational and emotional drivers of satisfaction. From a practical perspective, the findings offer actionable insights for AV service providers seeking to design user-centered experiences that not only meet functional expectations but also build emotional bonds that drive long-term loyalty.