The impact of EU carbon border adjustment mechanism on China’s export and its countermeasures

This study analyzes the potential impact of EU carbon border regulation mechanism (CBAM) on the export of China’s carbon-intensive products. First, we summarized the main content of the CBAM. Next, based on the input–output theory, this study proposes a calculation model for the implicit carbon emissions and indirect carbon emissions from electricity consumption in export products and presents the corresponding calculation results. Based on the scenario analysis method, six carbon tariff scenarios were designed to evaluate the impact of the CBAM on the major export sectors under each scenario. The results showed that in 2021, the implicit carbon emissions in all products exported to Europe from China were approximately 375 million tons, of which the indirect carbon emissions from electricity were approximately 41.8 million tons, accounting for more than 10%. According to the current levy plan, China is expected to be subject to carbon tariffs of approximately USD 1.4 billion, accounting for 0.3% of its total export value to Europe in 2021. Finally, to reduce the adverse effects of CBAM, four measures were proposed from the perspective of the power industry.