Ending the musical chairs game in higher education: How a data-driven tool improved educational outcomes in Colombia

In 2004, the Colombian Ministry of Education (MEN) launched the System for the Prevention and Analysis of School Dropouts in Higher Education Institutions (SPADIES) to assist higher education institutions (HEIs) in reducing dropout rates. Initially an app, SPADIES evolved into a pivotal system in a nationwide program that contributed to higher education enrollment rates rising from 20 % in 2002 to 40 % in 2010 and 53.9 % in 2022. The system enabled comprehensive student data collection, analysis, and visualization, helping HEIs to prevent dropouts and re-engage students who had dropped out. Using a differences-in-differences approach based on Callaway and Sant’Anna (2021), this study finds that SPADIES lowered dropout probabilities by 0.7 percentage points while increasing the likelihood of on-time graduation by 0.6 percentage points and overall graduation by 0.4 percentage points. Although these figures may appear modest, a 0.7 percentage point reduction equates to approximately 14,000 students, almost doubling the average HEIs in Colombia. From 2005–2017, SPADIES cost USD 4.9 million (valued at 2025 prices), translating to a cost per student who avoided dropout of USD 350 or about USD 410 per graduated student. These results demonstrate the cost-effectiveness and transformative potential of data-driven approaches like SPADIES for human capital development. SPADIES also contributed to increased future incomes by enabling degree completion, alleviating pressures on HEIs, and improving enrollment efficiency, offering important lessons for emerging economies facing similar retention challenges.