Strong bat predation and weak environmental constraints predict longer moth tails.

Elaborate traits evolve via intense selective pressure, overpowering ecological constraints. Hindwing tails that thwart bat attack have repeatedly originated in moon moths (Saturniidae), with longer tails having greater anti-predator effect. Here, we take a macroevolutionary approach to evaluate the evolutionary balance between predation pressure and possible limiting environmental factors on tail elongation. To trace the evolution of tail length across time and space, we inferred a time-calibrated phylogeny of the entirely tailed moth group (Actias + Argema) and performed ancestral state reconstruction and biogeographical analyses. We generated metrics of predation via estimates of bat abundance from nearly 200 custom-built species distribution models and environmental metrics via estimates of bioclimatic variables associated with individual moth observations. To access community science data, we developed a novel method for measuring wing lengths from un-scaled photos. Integrating these data into phylogenetically informed mixed models, we find a positive association between bat predation pressure and moth tail length and body size, and a negative association between environmental factors and these morphological traits. Regions with more insectivorous bats and more consistent temperatures tend to host longer-tailed moths. Our study provides insight into tradeoffs between biotic selective pressures and abiotic constraints that shape elaborate traits across the tree of life.