Efficacy evaluation and prognostic prediction of endoscopic ultrasound for neoadjuvant immunotherapy in esophageal cancer.

Background and objectives: Neoadjuvant immunotherapy combined with chemotherapy or chemoradiotherapy has emerged as a promising approach in the treatment of esophageal cancer. However, there is a lack of comprehensive understanding regarding the clinical factors that can predict patient response to this therapy. The aim of this study was to develop a predictive model for assessing the efficacy of neoadjuvant immunotherapy in patients undergoing surgical treatment.

Methods: This study retrospectively enrolled 220 consecutive patients with preoperative immunotherapy combined chemotherapy or chemoradiotherapy. A logistic regression was used to evaluate the association between pathologic complete response (pCR) and endoscopic ultrasound parameters, constructing a predictive model for treatment response. Additional, overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) were estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method, and Cox regression analyses were introduced to explore the associations between EUS factors after neoadjuvant immunotherapy.

Results: Logistic regression analysis identified that the significant predictors of pCR were treatment regimen, negative biopsy findings, RECIST assessment, endoscopic ultrasound responder, and downstaging in uN. A predictive model including above five variables was generated, and area under the curve was 0.840(95%CI 0.78-0.89), this nomogram was also adequately validated internally. In the cox regression analyses, EUS responder was found to be a significant predictor of overall survival with a hazard ratio (HR) of 0.38(95%CI 0.15-0.98), whereas only pCR status was a significant predictor of PFS (HR 0.80; 95%CI 0.01-0.60).

Conclusions: EUS responder can serve as a valuable predictor of the efficacy of adjuvant immunotherapy combined with chemotherapy or chemoradiotherapy, as well as of survival outcomes.