采用分区建模方法，支持管理择期医院候诊名单的战略决策；英国国民健康保险制度的应用。
IF 2.3
3区 医学
Q2 HEALTH POLICY & SERVICES
Health Care Management Science
Pub Date : 2025-06-01
Epub Date: 2025-05-13
DOI:10.1007/s10729-025-09709-7
引用次数: 0
摘要
等候名单模型可以通过估计不同需求和能力相关干预措施可能产生的绩效影响，支持改进选择性医院护理的战略管理。以前，单室模型被用来模拟转诊“流入”和治疗“流出”到等待名单上，有些还考虑了患者在治疗前放弃等待名单的流出。这些模型概念上的简单性通过与各种等待列表问题和常规数据源保持一致，提高了可伸缩性。然而，这些单隔间模型只能模拟等候名单的大小，而不能模拟等候时间。为了解决这个问题，我们将单室模型扩展为考虑多室模型，其中每个隔间代表等待治疗的个体数量，等待的时间越来越长。该问题在离散时间内表述，并通过一系列差分方程求解。用于实现模型的开源代码是免费提供的。为了说明该方法的多功能性，该模型使用截至2023年底的英格兰NHS候诊名单的常规数据进行校准，并用于预测到2025年底的未来两年的各种情景。通过回测（在过去未见过的数据上运行模型）执行模型验证，在6个月和12个月的窗口分别获得0.4%和4.7%的MAPE。本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。
A compartmental modelling methodology to support strategic decision making for managing the elective hospital waiting list; application in England's NHS.
Waiting list models can support improved strategic management of elective hospital care through estimating possible performance impacts resulting from different demand and capacity related interventions. Single-compartment models have previously been used to model the referral 'inflow' and treatment 'outflow' onto a waiting list, with some also considering the outflow of patients reneging from the waiting list before treatment. The conceptual simplicity of these models promotes scalability through aligning to various waiting list problems and routine data sources. However, these single-compartment models are only able to model waiting list size, and not waiting times. To address this, we extend the single-compartment model with reneging to consider a multi-compartment model, where each compartment represents the number of individuals awaiting treatment for progressively longer periods of time. This problem is formulated in discrete time and solved through a series of difference equations. Open-source code for implementing the model is made freely available. To illustrate the versatility of the methodology, the model is calibrated using routine data for the total England NHS waiting list as of year-end 2023 and used to project various scenarios over the following two years to year-end 2025. Model validation is performed through backtesting (running the model on past unseen data), with 0.4% and 4.7% MAPE attained on six and twelve month windows respectively.
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来源期刊
Health Care Management Science
HEALTH POLICY & SERVICES-
CiteScore
7.20
自引率
5.60%
发文量
40
期刊介绍：
Health Care Management Science publishes papers dealing with health care delivery, health care management, and health care policy. Papers should have a decision focus and make use of quantitative methods including management science, operations research, analytics, machine learning, and other emerging areas. Articles must clearly articulate the relevance and the realized or potential impact of the work. Applied research will be considered and is of particular interest if there is evidence that it was implemented or informed a decision-making process. Papers describing routine applications of known methods are discouraged.
Authors are encouraged to disclose all data and analyses thereof, and to provide computational code when appropriate.
Editorial statements for the individual departments are provided below.
Health Care Analytics
Departmental Editors:
Margrét Bjarnadóttir, University of Maryland
Nan Kong, Purdue University
With the explosion in computing power and available data, we have seen fast changes in the analytics applied in the healthcare space. The Health Care Analytics department welcomes papers applying a broad range of analytical approaches, including those rooted in machine learning, survival analysis, and complex event analysis, that allow healthcare professionals to find opportunities for improvement in health system management, patient engagement, spending, and diagnosis. We especially encourage papers that combine predictive and prescriptive analytics to improve decision making and health care outcomes.
The contribution of papers can be across multiple dimensions including new methodology, novel modeling techniques and health care through real-world cohort studies. Papers that are methodologically focused need in addition to show practical relevance. Similarly papers that are application focused should clearly demonstrate improvements over the status quo and available approaches by applying rigorous analytics.
Health Care Operations Management
Departmental Editors:
Nilay Tanik Argon, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
Bob Batt, University of Wisconsin
The department invites high-quality papers on the design, control, and analysis of operations at healthcare systems. We seek papers on classical operations management issues (such as scheduling, routing, queuing, transportation, patient flow, and quality) as well as non-traditional problems driven by everchanging healthcare practice. Empirical, experimental, and analytical (model based) methodologies are all welcome. Papers may draw theory from across disciplines, and should provide insight into improving operations from the perspective of patients, service providers, organizations (municipal/government/industry), and/or society.
Health Care Management Science Practice
Departmental Editor:
Vikram Tiwari, Vanderbilt University Medical Center
The department seeks research from academicians and practitioners that highlights Management Science based solutions directly relevant to the practice of healthcare. Relevance is judged by the impact on practice, as well as the degree to which researchers engaged with practitioners in understanding the problem context and in developing the solution. Validity, that is, the extent to which the results presented do or would apply in practice is a key evaluation criterion. In addition to meeting the journal’s standards of originality and substantial contribution to knowledge creation, research that can be replicated in other organizations is encouraged. Papers describing unsuccessful applied research projects may be considered if there are generalizable learning points addressing why the project was unsuccessful.
Health Care Productivity Analysis
Departmental Editor:
Jonas Schreyögg, University of Hamburg
The department invites papers with rigorous methods and significant impact for policy and practice. Papers typically apply theory and techniques to measuring productivity in health care organizations and systems. The journal welcomes state-of-the-art parametric as well as non-parametric techniques such as data envelopment analysis, stochastic frontier analysis or partial frontier analysis. The contribution of papers can be manifold including new methodology, novel combination of existing methods or application of existing methods to new contexts. Empirical papers should produce results generalizable beyond a selected set of health care organizations. All papers should include a section on implications for management or policy to enhance productivity.
Public Health Policy and Medical Decision Making
Departmental Editors:
Ebru Bish, University of Alabama
Julie L. Higle, University of Southern California
The department invites high quality papers that use data-driven methods to address important problems that arise in public health policy and medical decision-making domains. We welcome submissions that develop and apply mathematical and computational models in support of data-driven and model-based analyses for these problems.
The Public Health Policy and Medical Decision-Making Department is particularly interested in papers that:
Study high-impact problems involving health policy, treatment planning and design, and clinical applications;
Develop original data-driven models, including those that integrate disease modeling with screening and/or treatment guidelines;
Use model-based analyses as decision making-tools to identify optimal solutions, insights, recommendations.
Articles must clearly articulate the relevance of the work to decision and/or policy makers and the potential impact on patients and/or society. Papers will include articulated contributions within the methodological domain, which may include modeling, analytical, or computational methodologies.
Emerging Topics
Departmental Editor:
Alec Morton, University of Strathclyde
Emerging Topics will handle papers which use innovative quantitative methods to shed light on frontier issues in healthcare management and policy. Such papers may deal with analytic challenges arising from novel health technologies or new organizational forms. Papers falling under this department may also deal with the analysis of new forms of data which are increasingly captured as health systems become more and more digitized.
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