{"title":"减少氮氧化物排放对部门、季节和国家特定氮氧化物相关健康的益处。","authors":"Patrick Wiecko, Daven K Henze, M Omar Nawaz","doi":"10.1021/acsestair.5c00012","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Long-term exposure to NO<sub>2</sub> is associated with elevated risks for pediatric asthma and premature death. Despite national policies targeting NO<sub>2</sub>'s main source, NO <sub><i>x</i></sub> emissions, its global health burden remains high. Here, we use the air quality model GEOS-Chem adjoint with TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI)-based satellite downscaling to estimate that long-term NO<sub>2</sub> exposure is responsible for 2.07 (95% CI 0.91-2.70) million pediatric asthma cases and 1.98 (95% CI 0.52-2.86) million deaths globally in 2019. We attribute these to anthropogenic NO <sub><i>x</i></sub> emissions by sector, country, and season using the adjoint model and provide a recommendation for the most impactful sector and season for NO <sub><i>x</i></sub> emission controls in each G20 country. Discrepancies exist between the health benefits incurred by emission reductions and the emission sector distributions, particularly in countries with emitters adjoining population centers. For example, we find that, if Russian anthropogenic NO <sub><i>x</i></sub> emissions were reduced uniformly by 10% across all sectors, the energy sector, 31% of annual NO <sub><i>x</i></sub> emissions, would account for 47% of pediatric asthma and 49% of premature death health benefits. The season in which these emission reductions occur also affects the magnitude of the health benefit, as seen by the fact that Russian wintertime NO <sub><i>x</i></sub> emission reductions alone are responsible for approximately one-third of the annual health benefits for each health outcome. We present the unique results for each of the G20 members to showcase how a country's NO <sub><i>x</i></sub> emission reductions can be most impactful in reducing the global NO<sub>2</sub>-associated health burden.</p>","PeriodicalId":100014,"journal":{"name":"ACS ES&T Air","volume":"2 4","pages":"700-709"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2025-03-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11997953/pdf/","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Sector-, Season-, and Country-Specific NO<sub>2</sub>-Associated Health Benefits from NO <sub><i>x</i></sub> Emission Reductions.\",\"authors\":\"Patrick Wiecko, Daven K Henze, M Omar Nawaz\",\"doi\":\"10.1021/acsestair.5c00012\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p><p>Long-term exposure to NO<sub>2</sub> is associated with elevated risks for pediatric asthma and premature death. Despite national policies targeting NO<sub>2</sub>'s main source, NO <sub><i>x</i></sub> emissions, its global health burden remains high. Here, we use the air quality model GEOS-Chem adjoint with TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI)-based satellite downscaling to estimate that long-term NO<sub>2</sub> exposure is responsible for 2.07 (95% CI 0.91-2.70) million pediatric asthma cases and 1.98 (95% CI 0.52-2.86) million deaths globally in 2019. We attribute these to anthropogenic NO <sub><i>x</i></sub> emissions by sector, country, and season using the adjoint model and provide a recommendation for the most impactful sector and season for NO <sub><i>x</i></sub> emission controls in each G20 country. Discrepancies exist between the health benefits incurred by emission reductions and the emission sector distributions, particularly in countries with emitters adjoining population centers. For example, we find that, if Russian anthropogenic NO <sub><i>x</i></sub> emissions were reduced uniformly by 10% across all sectors, the energy sector, 31% of annual NO <sub><i>x</i></sub> emissions, would account for 47% of pediatric asthma and 49% of premature death health benefits. The season in which these emission reductions occur also affects the magnitude of the health benefit, as seen by the fact that Russian wintertime NO <sub><i>x</i></sub> emission reductions alone are responsible for approximately one-third of the annual health benefits for each health outcome. We present the unique results for each of the G20 members to showcase how a country's NO <sub><i>x</i></sub> emission reductions can be most impactful in reducing the global NO<sub>2</sub>-associated health burden.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":100014,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"ACS ES&T Air\",\"volume\":\"2 4\",\"pages\":\"700-709\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2025-03-19\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11997953/pdf/\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"ACS ES&T Air\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1021/acsestair.5c00012\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"2025/4/11 0:00:00\",\"PubModel\":\"eCollection\",\"JCR\":\"\",\"JCRName\":\"\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"ACS ES&T Air","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1021/acsestair.5c00012","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"2025/4/11 0:00:00","PubModel":"eCollection","JCR":"","JCRName":"","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
摘要
长期暴露于二氧化氮与儿童哮喘和过早死亡的风险升高有关。尽管国家政策针对二氧化氮的主要来源——一氧化氮的排放,但其全球健康负担仍然很高。在这里,我们使用空气质量模型GEOS-Chem以及基于对流层监测仪器(TROPOMI)的卫星缩小尺度来估计,2019年全球长期暴露于二氧化氮导致了207万(95% CI 0.91- 270)万例儿科哮喘病例和198万(95% CI 0.52- 286)万例死亡。我们使用伴随模型将这些归因于按部门、国家和季节划分的人为nox排放,并为每个G20国家最具影响力的部门和季节提供了nox排放控制建议。减少排放所带来的健康效益与排放部门分布之间存在差异,特别是在排放者毗邻人口中心的国家。例如,我们发现,如果俄罗斯所有部门的人为nox排放量统一减少10%,那么占年度nox排放量31%的能源部门将占儿科哮喘的47%和过早死亡健康效益的49%。这些减排发生的季节也影响到健康效益的大小,这一点可以从以下事实中看出:仅俄罗斯冬季的nox减排就对每项健康成果的年度健康效益产生了大约三分之一的影响。我们为每个G20成员提供了独特的结果,以展示一个国家的nox减排如何在减少全球与二氧化氮相关的健康负担方面发挥最大的作用。
Sector-, Season-, and Country-Specific NO2-Associated Health Benefits from NO x Emission Reductions.
Long-term exposure to NO2 is associated with elevated risks for pediatric asthma and premature death. Despite national policies targeting NO2's main source, NO x emissions, its global health burden remains high. Here, we use the air quality model GEOS-Chem adjoint with TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI)-based satellite downscaling to estimate that long-term NO2 exposure is responsible for 2.07 (95% CI 0.91-2.70) million pediatric asthma cases and 1.98 (95% CI 0.52-2.86) million deaths globally in 2019. We attribute these to anthropogenic NO x emissions by sector, country, and season using the adjoint model and provide a recommendation for the most impactful sector and season for NO x emission controls in each G20 country. Discrepancies exist between the health benefits incurred by emission reductions and the emission sector distributions, particularly in countries with emitters adjoining population centers. For example, we find that, if Russian anthropogenic NO x emissions were reduced uniformly by 10% across all sectors, the energy sector, 31% of annual NO x emissions, would account for 47% of pediatric asthma and 49% of premature death health benefits. The season in which these emission reductions occur also affects the magnitude of the health benefit, as seen by the fact that Russian wintertime NO x emission reductions alone are responsible for approximately one-third of the annual health benefits for each health outcome. We present the unique results for each of the G20 members to showcase how a country's NO x emission reductions can be most impactful in reducing the global NO2-associated health burden.