A multivariable prediction model to stratify risk of 90-day rehospitalization among adults with ulcerative colitis.

Background: Individuals with ulcerative colitis (UC) are frequently re-hospitalized for persistent or recurrent severe disease flares. Accurate prediction of the risk of early re-hospitalization at the time of discharge could promote targeted outpatient interventions to reduce this risk.

Methods: We conducted a retrospective study in adults with UC admitted to The Ottawa Hospital between 2009 and 2016 for an acute UC-related indication. We ascertained candidate demographic, clinical, and health services predictors through medical records and administrative health databases. We derived and bootstrap validated a multivariable logistic regression model of 90-day UC-related re-hospitalization risk. We chose a probability cut point that maximized Youden's index to differentiate high-risk from low-risk individuals and assessed model performance.

Results: Among 248 UC-related hospitalizations, there were 27 (10.9%) re-hospitalizations within 90 days of discharge. Our multivariable model identified gastroenterologist consultation within the prior year (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 0.11, 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.04-0.39), male sex (aOR 3.27, 95% CI, 1.33-8.05), length of stay (OR 0.94, 95% CI, 0.88-1.01), and narcotic prescription at discharge (OR 1.96, 95% CI, 0.73-5.27) as significant predictors of 90-day re-hospitalization. The optimism-corrected c-statistic value was 0.78, and the goodness-of-fit test P-value was .09. The chosen probability cut point produced a sensitivity of 77.8%, specificity of 80.9%, positive predictive value (PPV) of 33.0%, and negative predictive value (NPV) of 96.7% in the derivation cohort.

Conclusions: A limited set of variables accessible at the point of hospital discharge can reasonably discriminate re-hospitalization risk among individuals with UC. Future studies are required to validate our findings.