Jiahao Xie, Chengen Wu, Zhenpeng Zhao, Zhihua Cao, Xiaoqing Jin
{"title":"1990年至2021年亚洲国家一氧化碳中毒负担及其到2030年的预测：2021年全球疾病负担研究分析","authors":"Jiahao Xie, Chengen Wu, Zhenpeng Zhao, Zhihua Cao, Xiaoqing Jin","doi":"10.2147/CLEP.S512786","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>Carbon monoxide (CO) poisoning represents a significant contributor to injury burden across Asia. This study seeks to assess the burden of CO poisoning in Asia from 1990 to 2021 utilizing data from the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2021.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>Data on the burden of CO poisoning across 49 Asian countries were extracted from GBD 2021. The variations in burden were analyzed according to year, gender, location, age, and Socio-Demographic Index (SDI). Analyses included Joinpoint analysis to evaluate temporal trends, the age-period-cohort model to assess disease burden trends, the slope index of inequality and concentration index for assessing health disparities, frontier analysis for estimating potential outcomes based on developmental stages, and the auto-regressive integrated moving average model to predict the disability-adjusted life year (DALY) rates.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>During 1990-2021, the age-standardized incidence rate (average annual percent change (AAPC) = -0.83, 95% CI: -0.94 to -0.73), age-standardized mortality rate (AAPC = -2.01, 95% CI: -2.20 to -1.81), and DALY rates (AAPC = -2.39, 95% CI: -2.54 to -2.23) for CO poisoning across Asia declined. In 2021, females experienced a lower burden than males, and countries in higher latitudes bore a greater burden. The burden was more pronounced in extreme age groups, with an elevated cohort risk in the 1967-1971 birth cohort (relative risk (RR) = 1.045, 95% CI: 0.96-1.14). Health inequality analyses showed a reduction in disparities between countries with varying SDI levels. Frontier analysis identified potential improvements in reducing the burden across different countries. However, there was no notable correlation between this burden and SDI levels. The age-standardized disability-adjusted life year rate is predicted to continue declining from 2022 to 2030.</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>This study analyzes the burden of CO poisoning in Asia, revealing a decline from 1990 to 2021, with variations across countries and higher burdens in males and extreme age groups. It suggests a reduction in health inequalities and forecasts a continued decline in the burden by 2030.</p>","PeriodicalId":10362,"journal":{"name":"Clinical Epidemiology","volume":"17 ","pages":"367-386"},"PeriodicalIF":3.4000,"publicationDate":"2025-04-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12009748/pdf/","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Burden of Carbon Monoxide Poisoning in Asian Countries From 1990 to 2021 and Its Projection Until 2030: An Analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021.\",\"authors\":\"Jiahao Xie, Chengen Wu, Zhenpeng Zhao, Zhihua Cao, Xiaoqing Jin\",\"doi\":\"10.2147/CLEP.S512786\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p><strong>Background: </strong>Carbon monoxide (CO) poisoning represents a significant contributor to injury burden across Asia. This study seeks to assess the burden of CO poisoning in Asia from 1990 to 2021 utilizing data from the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2021.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>Data on the burden of CO poisoning across 49 Asian countries were extracted from GBD 2021. The variations in burden were analyzed according to year, gender, location, age, and Socio-Demographic Index (SDI). Analyses included Joinpoint analysis to evaluate temporal trends, the age-period-cohort model to assess disease burden trends, the slope index of inequality and concentration index for assessing health disparities, frontier analysis for estimating potential outcomes based on developmental stages, and the auto-regressive integrated moving average model to predict the disability-adjusted life year (DALY) rates.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>During 1990-2021, the age-standardized incidence rate (average annual percent change (AAPC) = -0.83, 95% CI: -0.94 to -0.73), age-standardized mortality rate (AAPC = -2.01, 95% CI: -2.20 to -1.81), and DALY rates (AAPC = -2.39, 95% CI: -2.54 to -2.23) for CO poisoning across Asia declined. In 2021, females experienced a lower burden than males, and countries in higher latitudes bore a greater burden. The burden was more pronounced in extreme age groups, with an elevated cohort risk in the 1967-1971 birth cohort (relative risk (RR) = 1.045, 95% CI: 0.96-1.14). Health inequality analyses showed a reduction in disparities between countries with varying SDI levels. Frontier analysis identified potential improvements in reducing the burden across different countries. However, there was no notable correlation between this burden and SDI levels. The age-standardized disability-adjusted life year rate is predicted to continue declining from 2022 to 2030.</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>This study analyzes the burden of CO poisoning in Asia, revealing a decline from 1990 to 2021, with variations across countries and higher burdens in males and extreme age groups. 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Burden of Carbon Monoxide Poisoning in Asian Countries From 1990 to 2021 and Its Projection Until 2030: An Analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021.
Background: Carbon monoxide (CO) poisoning represents a significant contributor to injury burden across Asia. This study seeks to assess the burden of CO poisoning in Asia from 1990 to 2021 utilizing data from the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2021.
Methods: Data on the burden of CO poisoning across 49 Asian countries were extracted from GBD 2021. The variations in burden were analyzed according to year, gender, location, age, and Socio-Demographic Index (SDI). Analyses included Joinpoint analysis to evaluate temporal trends, the age-period-cohort model to assess disease burden trends, the slope index of inequality and concentration index for assessing health disparities, frontier analysis for estimating potential outcomes based on developmental stages, and the auto-regressive integrated moving average model to predict the disability-adjusted life year (DALY) rates.
Results: During 1990-2021, the age-standardized incidence rate (average annual percent change (AAPC) = -0.83, 95% CI: -0.94 to -0.73), age-standardized mortality rate (AAPC = -2.01, 95% CI: -2.20 to -1.81), and DALY rates (AAPC = -2.39, 95% CI: -2.54 to -2.23) for CO poisoning across Asia declined. In 2021, females experienced a lower burden than males, and countries in higher latitudes bore a greater burden. The burden was more pronounced in extreme age groups, with an elevated cohort risk in the 1967-1971 birth cohort (relative risk (RR) = 1.045, 95% CI: 0.96-1.14). Health inequality analyses showed a reduction in disparities between countries with varying SDI levels. Frontier analysis identified potential improvements in reducing the burden across different countries. However, there was no notable correlation between this burden and SDI levels. The age-standardized disability-adjusted life year rate is predicted to continue declining from 2022 to 2030.
Conclusion: This study analyzes the burden of CO poisoning in Asia, revealing a decline from 1990 to 2021, with variations across countries and higher burdens in males and extreme age groups. It suggests a reduction in health inequalities and forecasts a continued decline in the burden by 2030.
期刊介绍：
Clinical Epidemiology is an international, peer reviewed, open access journal. Clinical Epidemiology focuses on the application of epidemiological principles and questions relating to patients and clinical care in terms of prevention, diagnosis, prognosis, and treatment.
Clinical Epidemiology welcomes papers covering these topics in form of original research and systematic reviews.
Clinical Epidemiology has a special interest in international electronic medical patient records and other routine health care data, especially as applied to safety of medical interventions, clinical utility of diagnostic procedures, understanding short- and long-term clinical course of diseases, clinical epidemiological and biostatistical methods, and systematic reviews.
When considering submission of a paper utilizing publicly-available data, authors should ensure that such studies add significantly to the body of knowledge and that they use appropriate validated methods for identifying health outcomes.
The journal has launched special series describing existing data sources for clinical epidemiology, international health care systems and validation studies of algorithms based on databases and registries.
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