Prevalence, trends, and molecular insights into colistin resistance among gram-negative bacteria in Egypt: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

Background: This study examines colistin resistance in Gram-negative bacteria in Egypt, analyzing prevalence, trends, geographic variations, colistin-carbapenem resistance correlation, and mcr-mediated plasmid resistance.

Methods: We conducted a systematic search of articles published between 2014 and 2024 that reported on colistin or mcr-mediated resistance in Gram-negative bacteria isolated from human infections in Egypt, with clearly defined susceptibility testing methods. A random-effects meta-analysis was conducted to estimate colistin resistance prevalence based on broth microdilution (BMD) findings, the gold standard method. To explore the influence of study-level factors-including alternative susceptibility testing methods-a multivariate meta-regression analysis was performed. The results of the meta-regression are reported as regression coefficients (β), representing the difference in colistin resistance, expressed in percentage points. All statistical analyses were conducted using R software.

Results: This analysis included 55 studies. Based on BMD susceptibility testing, colistin resistance was observed in 9% of all recovered Gram-negative isolates (95% CI: 6-14%) and was significantly higher among carbapenem-resistant isolates (31%, 95% CI: 25-38%), with p < 0.001. Multivariate meta-regression analysis further confirmed that colistin resistance was significantly higher in carbapenem-resistant isolates compared to the total recovered isolates (β = 9.8% points, p = 0.001). Additionally, colistin resistance has significantly increased over time, with a β = 1.8% points per year (p = 0.001). The use of the VITEK 2 system was associated with lower detected colistin resistance compared to BMD (β = -7.0, p = 0.02). Geographically, resistance rates were higher in Upper Egypt (β = 9.3, p = 0.04). Regarding mcr plasmid-mediated resistance, mcr-1 was the most prevalent resistance gene, particularly in E. coli. In contrast, mcr-2 was rare, detected sporadically in K. pneumoniae and P. aeruginosa.

Conclusion: In Egypt, BMD testing identified colistin resistance in 9% of Gram-negative bacteria, increasing to 31% in carbapenem-resistant isolates. This higher resistance in carbapenem-resistant strains suggests stronger selective pressure from frequent colistin use. Additionally, colistin resistance has shown a rising trend over time, likely driven by increased usage and the spread of plasmid-mediated resistance. These findings underscore the urgent need for strict antimicrobial stewardship and alternative therapies to curb resistance evolution.