Adaptive restoration planning to enhance water security in a changing climate

Ecosystem restoration is a global priority for recovering degraded areas and mitigating climate change. However, climate change can impact the long-term effectiveness of restoration efforts. This study evaluated the effects of climate change on restoration planning, focusing on water quality in the Doce River basin, the site of Brazil’s largest environmental tragedy and the most significant mining disaster globally, with the release of approximately 50 million cubic metres of iron ore tailings into the environment. Sediment exportation was used as a criterion for assessing water quality under three climate scenarios. Restoration of riparian vegetation reduced sediment exportation by 75.29% but was insufficient to fully control erosion, particularly in the upper basin, where increased precipitation could exacerbate the problem. The findings underscore the risks of ignoring climate change in restoration planning. Adaptive strategies are essential to ensure long-term benefits and address climate challenges, fostering more resilient and sustainable ecosystems.