Bastien Reyné , Ramsès Djidjou-Demasse , Mircea T. Sofonea , Samuel Alizon
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Mutant emergence timing and population immunisation status impact epidemiological dynamics
A key question in evolutionary epidemiology is to determine differences in the conditions that may allow some mutant strains to spread in a population where a resident strain is already circulating. Evolutionary invasion analyses assume that the immunity is long-lasting for previously infected individuals making it difficult to study traits such as immune escape. We relax this last assumption and allow the environment faced by the mutant to fluctuate outside of any epidemiological equilibrium. We introduce an original two-strains non-Markovian model that accounts for realistic immunity waning and cross-immunity, inspired by the case of SARS-CoV-2 variants. We show that mutants with increased contagiousness or with some immune escape abilities are more likely to invade the population. We also show that the timing of the introduction of mutant strain in the population is key because it is associated with the population’s immunisation status. Our results underline the importance of immune waning and non-equilibrium dynamics on infectious disease evolution.
期刊介绍:
The Journal of Theoretical Biology is the leading forum for theoretical perspectives that give insight into biological processes. It covers a very wide range of topics and is of interest to biologists in many areas of research, including:
• Brain and Neuroscience
• Cancer Growth and Treatment
• Cell Biology
• Developmental Biology
• Ecology
• Evolution
• Immunology,
• Infectious and non-infectious Diseases,
• Mathematical, Computational, Biophysical and Statistical Modeling
• Microbiology, Molecular Biology, and Biochemistry
• Networks and Complex Systems
• Physiology
• Pharmacodynamics
• Animal Behavior and Game Theory
Acceptable papers are those that bear significant importance on the biology per se being presented, and not on the mathematical analysis. Papers that include some data or experimental material bearing on theory will be considered, including those that contain comparative study, statistical data analysis, mathematical proof, computer simulations, experiments, field observations, or even philosophical arguments, which are all methods to support or reject theoretical ideas. However, there should be a concerted effort to make papers intelligible to biologists in the chosen field.