Munich goes viral: Measuring the impact of the Oktoberfest on COVID-19 infection rates using difference-in-differences

With about 6 million visitors, the 2022 Oktoberfest in Germany has been one of the largest in-person social events following the COVID-19 pandemic. Despite high vaccination rates in Germany at that time, health authorities pointed out the high risk of getting infected at such events. Using a unique dataset, we estimate the causal impact of the Oktoberfest on the spread of infection by applying an event study design. Our results imply a significant increase in the infection rates during and after Oktoberfest, especially in the age cohorts 15–34 and 35–59. However, the case rate drops relatively quickly after Oktoberfest. We also find little to no effect of the fair on the infection rates of the remaining age cohorts below 15 and above 60 years of age. A robustness check using the hospitalization rate as dependent variable confirms those results. Our findings have important implications for regulations of large social events in times of COVID-19, when the share of vaccinated people in the population is already high.