Biased tertiary sex ratios enhance the efficacy of sex-ratio distorting genetic techniques to control invasive species

Genetic biocontrol strategies are increasingly being developed and tested for reducing the effects of invasive species, and are highly likely to be an important tool of integrated pest management in the future. Included among such strategies are those that distort the sex ratio of the target species. Models used to forecast the efficacy of such strategies generally assume, implicitly, that the tertiary sex ratio of the target population is 50:50. We present evidence that this assumption is important, and that if the tertiary sex ratio is biased towards females, a sex-distorting construct introduced into the population that produces phenotypic males will become fixed at a level determined by the magnitude of the bias, even after further introductions cease. We show, first using a simple logistic population model, and second using a realistic simulation of an important aquatic invasive species – the sea lamprey Petromyzon marinus – how this effect can greatly increase the effectiveness of a sex-distorting construct at population suppression, but also increase the risk of such strategies due to reduced reversibility. We also present evidence that biased tertiary sex ratios might be present in many invasive species, particularly when their population sizes are low relative to environmental carrying capacity.