向合法大麻市场过渡：联邦大麻合法化后加拿大大麻支出的合法市场占有率

IF 4.4 2区医学 Q1 SUBSTANCE ABUSE

International Journal of Drug Policy Pub Date : 2025-05-08 DOI:10.1016/j.drugpo.2025.104828

David Hammond , Daniel Hong , Samantha Rundle , Maryam Iraniparast , Beau Kilmer , Elle Wadsworth

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引用次数: 0

摘要

加拿大于2018年将“娱乐”或“非医疗”大麻合法化，其主要目标是取代非法大麻，并将消费者过渡到“质量控制”的合法零售市场。迄今为止，对拥有非医用大麻市场的司法管辖区的合法市场占有量进行的研究有限。方法当前的分析使用“需求方”方法，使用来自两个来源的数据来估计加拿大大麻市场的规模。首先，使用加拿大社区健康调查的数据来估计使用大麻的加拿大人的数量。其次，作为国际大麻政策研究的一部分，5656名年龄在16-100岁的消费者在2022年完成了全国调查，分析了过去12个月合法和非法来源的大麻支出数据。结果来自合法来源的总估计支出与加拿大政府跟踪系统的“实际”零售销售数据相差不到两个百分点。在截至2022年9月的12个月期间，加拿大的大麻总支出估计为67.2亿美元，其中合法来源为52.3亿美元，非法来源为14.9亿美元，估计合法市场份额为78%。2022年，干花占法律总支出的55%，另外2%用于植物和种子。浓缩液占法律支出的12%，其次是口服液（11%）、电子烟液体（10%）和食品（8%，不包括饮料）。结论：研究结果提供了证据，证明自加拿大非医用大麻合法化以来的五年中，支出从非法市场向合法市场发生了实质性转变。

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Transitions to legal cannabis markets: Legal market capture of cannabis expenditures in Canada following federal cannabis legalization

Background

Canada legalized ‘recreational’ or ‘non-medical’ cannabis in 2018 with a primary objective of displacing illicit cannabis and transitioning consumers to a ‘quality controlled’ legal retail market. To date, there is limited research on legal market capture in jurisdictions with non-medical cannabis markets.

Methods

The current analysis used ‘demand-side’ methods to estimate the size of the Canadian cannabis market using data from two sources. First, data from the Canadian Community Health Survey were used to estimate the number of Canadians who use cannabis. Second, data on cannabis expenditures from legal versus illegal sources were analyzed from 5656 past 12-month consumers aged 16–100 who completed national surveys conducted in 2022 as part of the International Cannabis Policy Study.

Results

Total estimated expenditures from legal sources were within two percentage points of the ‘actual’ retail sales data from Government of Canada’s tracking system. In the 12-month period ending in September 2022, total cannabis expenditures in Canada were estimated at $6.72 billion dollars, including $5.23 billion from legal sources and $1.49 billion from illegal sources for an estimated legal market capture of 78 %. In 2022, dried flower accounted for 55 % of total legal expenditures and an additional 2 % was spent on plants and seeds. Concentrates accounted for 12 % of legal expenditures, followed by oral liquids (11 %), vaping liquids (10 %), and edibles (8 %, excluding drinks).

Conclusions

The findings provide evidence of substantial transition in expenditures from the illegal to the legal market in the five years since legalization of non-medical cannabis in Canada.

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来源期刊

International Journal of Drug Policy SUBSTANCE ABUSE-

CiteScore

7.80

自引率

11.40%

发文量

307

审稿时长

62 days

期刊介绍： The International Journal of Drug Policy provides a forum for the dissemination of current research, reviews, debate, and critical analysis on drug use and drug policy in a global context. It seeks to publish material on the social, political, legal, and health contexts of psychoactive substance use, both licit and illicit. The journal is particularly concerned to explore the effects of drug policy and practice on drug-using behaviour and its health and social consequences. It is the policy of the journal to represent a wide range of material on drug-related matters from around the world.