Jacob Curran-Sebastian , Louise Dyson , Edward M. Hill , Ian Hall , Lorenzo Pellis , Thomas House
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Probability of extinction and peak time for multi-type epidemics with application to COVID-19 variants of concern
During the COVID-19 pandemic, the emergence of novel variants of concern (VoCs) prompted different responses from governments across the world aimed at mitigating the impacts of more transmissible or more harmful strains. We model the invasion of a novel VoC into a population with heterogeneous vaccine- and infection-acquired immunity using a multi-type branching process framework with immigration. We define the number of cases needed to be reached to ensure stochastic extinction of this strain is unlikely and, therefore, the strain has become established in the population. To estimate the first-passage time distribution to reach this number of cases we use a mixture of stochastic simulations and analytic results. The first-passage time distribution gives a time window that is useful for policymakers planning interventions aimed at suppressing or delaying the introduction of novel VoC. We apply our method to a model of COVID-19 in the United Kingdom, though our results are applicable to other pathogens and settings.
期刊介绍:
The Journal of Theoretical Biology is the leading forum for theoretical perspectives that give insight into biological processes. It covers a very wide range of topics and is of interest to biologists in many areas of research, including:
• Brain and Neuroscience
• Cancer Growth and Treatment
• Cell Biology
• Developmental Biology
• Ecology
• Evolution
• Immunology,
• Infectious and non-infectious Diseases,
• Mathematical, Computational, Biophysical and Statistical Modeling
• Microbiology, Molecular Biology, and Biochemistry
• Networks and Complex Systems
• Physiology
• Pharmacodynamics
• Animal Behavior and Game Theory
Acceptable papers are those that bear significant importance on the biology per se being presented, and not on the mathematical analysis. Papers that include some data or experimental material bearing on theory will be considered, including those that contain comparative study, statistical data analysis, mathematical proof, computer simulations, experiments, field observations, or even philosophical arguments, which are all methods to support or reject theoretical ideas. However, there should be a concerted effort to make papers intelligible to biologists in the chosen field.