Is abortion policy the next catalyst for ideological migration? Dobbs v. Jackson and migration intentions across the United States

The overturning of federal abortion protections by the U.S. Supreme Court in Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization has shifted abortion regulation to state legislatures. This study investigates whether impending changes in state-level abortion policies could trigger ideological migration across the country, where individuals relocate to align with states that match their political and moral beliefs. We surveyed a sample of Americans (N = 743) two weeks after the Dobbs v. Jackson decision to investigate whether pro-choice and pro-life advocates experienced a diminished sense of belonging and stronger intentions to migrate when their state's anticipated abortion policy conflicted with their beliefs. The results provided support for the ideological migration hypothesis, showing that those in states expected to implement abortion laws contrary to their beliefs reported lower belonging and a heightened desire to relocate. They were also more likely to consider relocating to a state with abortion policies that better aligned with their ideological views. Our findings highlight how state-level abortion policy changes could amplify political polarization and contribute to increased regional ideological sorting.