当经济实力成为一种负担时——金融危机和COVID-19大流行等不可预测的黑天鹅事件会破坏酒店价值动态

IF 0.9 4区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS
Ying Chen, Don Capener
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引用次数: 0

摘要

本研究考察了最近几次经济危机(2008-2009年金融危机和COVID-19大流行)期间酒店行业的运营效率与企业价值之间的关系。两者都是黑天鹅事件,很难或不可能提前预测。本文以1991 - 2023年161,031家酒店企业为样本,采用OLS和GLS回归模型以及看似不相关的回归分析进行定量分析。我们的研究结果表明,经营效率通常会对企业价值产生积极影响,但这种关系会因危机的性质而发生显著变化。在金融危机期间,效率对公司价值的积极影响被放大了,尤其是对于财务状况较好的酒店。相反,在2019冠状病毒病大流行期间,效率-价值关系保持稳定,财务状况较好的酒店受到的负面影响更为明显。这些结果突出表明,在黑天鹅事件期间,酒店财务管理和估值需要根据具体情况采取具体方法,这有助于撰写有关酒店危机管理和财务绩效的文献。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
When Economic Prowess Is a Liability—Unpredictable Black Swan Events Such as the Financial Crisis and COVID-19 Pandemic Disrupt Hotel Value Dynamics

This study examines the relationship between operating efficiency and firm value in the hotel industry during the most recent economic crises: the 2008–2009 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic. Both were Black Swan events that were difficult or impossible to predict in advance. Using a sample of 161,031 hotel firms from 1991 to 2023, we employ OLS and GLS regression models and seemingly unrelated regression analyses to perform the quantitative analysis. Our findings reveal that operating efficiency generally positively impacts firm value, but this relationship varies significantly depending on the nature of the crisis. During the financial crisis, the positive impact of efficiency on firm value was amplified, particularly for financially more robust hotels. Conversely, during the COVID-19 pandemic, the efficiency-value relationship remained stable, with financially more robust hotels experiencing a more pronounced negative impact. These results highlight the need for context-specific approaches to hotel financial management and valuation during Black Swan events, contributing to the literature on hospitality crisis management and financial performance.

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来源期刊
CiteScore
1.90
自引率
12.50%
发文量
39
期刊介绍: The American Journal of Economics and Sociology (AJES) was founded in 1941, with support from the Robert Schalkenbach Foundation, to encourage the development of transdisciplinary solutions to social problems. In the introduction to the first issue, John Dewey observed that “the hostile state of the world and the intellectual division that has been built up in so-called ‘social science,’ are … reflections and expressions of the same fundamental causes.” Dewey commended this journal for its intention to promote “synthesis in the social field.” Dewey wrote those words almost six decades after the social science associations split off from the American Historical Association in pursuit of value-free knowledge derived from specialized disciplines. Since he wrote them, academic or disciplinary specialization has become even more pronounced. Multi-disciplinary work is superficially extolled in major universities, but practices and incentives still favor highly specialized work. The result is that academia has become a bastion of analytic excellence, breaking phenomena into components for intensive investigation, but it contributes little synthetic or holistic understanding that can aid society in finding solutions to contemporary problems. Analytic work remains important, but in response to the current lop-sided emphasis on specialization, the board of AJES has decided to return to its roots by emphasizing a more integrated and practical approach to knowledge.
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