Mining activities drive the temporal and spatial changes of ecosystem carbon storage in coal resource-based city with high groundwater table

Land use/cover change (LUCC) drives the change in carbon storage of terrestrial ecosystems, and the LUCC in coal resource-based cities are influenced by both mining activities and urbanization. However, there is a lack of systematic research on the change in ecosystem carbon storage, the driving mechanisms, and future predictions under multiple factors of resource-based cities. This study takes Jining, a typical coal resource-based city with high groundwater of China, as a case to explore the changes in carbon storage and driving factors from 2000 to 2020, and to predict the changes in carbon storage under different reclamation and urbanization intensities. The research shows that from 2000 to 2020, ecosystem carbon storage decreased by a total of 15.57 Tg, with 16.76 % of mining areas experiencing a decline in ecosystem carbon storage. Mining factors explain the decrease in ecosystem carbon storage better than urbanization factors. From 2000 to 2020, the top four factors explaining the reduction in ecosystem carbon storage are ranked as follows: land subsidence > land reclamation > nighttime light > GDP. In the short term, land reclamation can offset the carbon loss caused by increased urbanization intensity. Choosing a strategy of low-intensity urbanization and high-intensity reclamation is the best option for maintaining ecosystem carbon storage. This study reveals the driving role of mining activities in the changes of carbon storage in resource-based cities and provides policy-makers with a relatively reasonable land management policy.