基于混合类型多重健康保险结果联合建模的潜在风险评估

IF 1.3 4区 数学 Q3 MATHEMATICS, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS
Xingde Duan, Renjun Ma
{"title":"基于混合类型多重健康保险结果联合建模的潜在风险评估","authors":"Xingde Duan,&nbsp;Renjun Ma","doi":"10.1002/asmb.70012","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p>Our research is motivated by an insurance study involving 788 insurance subscribers who made claims resulting from ischemic heart disease. Four different types of health services used by these subscribers as well as the corresponding total cost were observed for two years. Health care utilizations vary a lot even for subscribers of the same personal characteristics. The research question of primary interest is how to capture patient-specific latent risks beyond what can be explained by known personal characteristics. In this study, we characterize unobserved latent risks by random effects in our joint Tweedie mixed models for multiple health outcomes of mixed types. An optimal estimation of our model has been developed using the orthodox best linear unbiased predictors of random effects. Our approach is illustrated with the analysis of the health insurance study of 788 ischemic heart disease patients. Applying cluster analysis to the patient-specific latent risks predicted by our model, we were able to classify patients into a high risk group of 36 patients, a medium risk group of 256 patients and a low risk group of 496 patients. The finding is of important policy relevance since the losses suffered by a few are known to be spread over many in an insurance system. Grouping of patients and prioritization of specific groups based on subject-specific latent risks facilitates resource allocation and pricing.</p>","PeriodicalId":55495,"journal":{"name":"Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry","volume":"41 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.3000,"publicationDate":"2025-04-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/asmb.70012","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Assessing Latent Risk Based on Joint Modelling of Multiple Health Insurance Outcomes of Mixed Types\",\"authors\":\"Xingde Duan,&nbsp;Renjun Ma\",\"doi\":\"10.1002/asmb.70012\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p>Our research is motivated by an insurance study involving 788 insurance subscribers who made claims resulting from ischemic heart disease. Four different types of health services used by these subscribers as well as the corresponding total cost were observed for two years. Health care utilizations vary a lot even for subscribers of the same personal characteristics. The research question of primary interest is how to capture patient-specific latent risks beyond what can be explained by known personal characteristics. In this study, we characterize unobserved latent risks by random effects in our joint Tweedie mixed models for multiple health outcomes of mixed types. An optimal estimation of our model has been developed using the orthodox best linear unbiased predictors of random effects. Our approach is illustrated with the analysis of the health insurance study of 788 ischemic heart disease patients. Applying cluster analysis to the patient-specific latent risks predicted by our model, we were able to classify patients into a high risk group of 36 patients, a medium risk group of 256 patients and a low risk group of 496 patients. The finding is of important policy relevance since the losses suffered by a few are known to be spread over many in an insurance system. Grouping of patients and prioritization of specific groups based on subject-specific latent risks facilitates resource allocation and pricing.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":55495,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry\",\"volume\":\"41 3\",\"pages\":\"\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":1.3000,\"publicationDate\":\"2025-04-23\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/asmb.70012\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"100\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/asmb.70012\",\"RegionNum\":4,\"RegionCategory\":\"数学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q3\",\"JCRName\":\"MATHEMATICS, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry","FirstCategoryId":"100","ListUrlMain":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/asmb.70012","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"MATHEMATICS, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0

摘要

我们的研究是受到一项保险研究的启发,该研究涉及788名因缺血性心脏病而索赔的保险订户。对这些用户使用的四种不同类型的保健服务以及相应的总费用进行了为期两年的观察。即使对于具有相同个人特征的订阅者,医疗保健的利用也有很大差异。最主要的研究问题是如何捕捉患者特有的潜在风险,而不是已知的个人特征所能解释的。在这项研究中,我们通过随机效应在我们的联合Tweedie混合模型中描述了未观察到的潜在风险,用于混合类型的多种健康结局。使用随机效应的正统最佳线性无偏预测因子对我们的模型进行了最优估计。通过对788例缺血性心脏病患者健康保险研究的分析,说明了我们的方法。通过对模型预测的患者特异性潜在风险进行聚类分析,我们可以将患者分为高风险组36例,中等风险组256例,低风险组496例。这一发现具有重要的政策意义,因为众所周知,少数人遭受的损失会在保险体系中蔓延到许多人身上。根据特定主题的潜在风险对患者进行分组并对特定组进行优先排序,有助于资源分配和定价。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。

Assessing Latent Risk Based on Joint Modelling of Multiple Health Insurance Outcomes of Mixed Types

Assessing Latent Risk Based on Joint Modelling of Multiple Health Insurance Outcomes of Mixed Types

Our research is motivated by an insurance study involving 788 insurance subscribers who made claims resulting from ischemic heart disease. Four different types of health services used by these subscribers as well as the corresponding total cost were observed for two years. Health care utilizations vary a lot even for subscribers of the same personal characteristics. The research question of primary interest is how to capture patient-specific latent risks beyond what can be explained by known personal characteristics. In this study, we characterize unobserved latent risks by random effects in our joint Tweedie mixed models for multiple health outcomes of mixed types. An optimal estimation of our model has been developed using the orthodox best linear unbiased predictors of random effects. Our approach is illustrated with the analysis of the health insurance study of 788 ischemic heart disease patients. Applying cluster analysis to the patient-specific latent risks predicted by our model, we were able to classify patients into a high risk group of 36 patients, a medium risk group of 256 patients and a low risk group of 496 patients. The finding is of important policy relevance since the losses suffered by a few are known to be spread over many in an insurance system. Grouping of patients and prioritization of specific groups based on subject-specific latent risks facilitates resource allocation and pricing.

求助全文
通过发布文献求助,成功后即可免费获取论文全文。 去求助
来源期刊
CiteScore
2.70
自引率
0.00%
发文量
67
审稿时长
>12 weeks
期刊介绍: ASMBI - Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry (formerly Applied Stochastic Models and Data Analysis) was first published in 1985, publishing contributions in the interface between stochastic modelling, data analysis and their applications in business, finance, insurance, management and production. In 2007 ASMBI became the official journal of the International Society for Business and Industrial Statistics (www.isbis.org). The main objective is to publish papers, both technical and practical, presenting new results which solve real-life problems or have great potential in doing so. Mathematical rigour, innovative stochastic modelling and sound applications are the key ingredients of papers to be published, after a very selective review process. The journal is very open to new ideas, like Data Science and Big Data stemming from problems in business and industry or uncertainty quantification in engineering, as well as more traditional ones, like reliability, quality control, design of experiments, managerial processes, supply chains and inventories, insurance, econometrics, financial modelling (provided the papers are related to real problems). The journal is interested also in papers addressing the effects of business and industrial decisions on the environment, healthcare, social life. State-of-the art computational methods are very welcome as well, when combined with sound applications and innovative models.
×
引用
GB/T 7714-2015
复制
MLA
复制
APA
复制
导出至
BibTeX EndNote RefMan NoteFirst NoteExpress
×
提示
您的信息不完整,为了账户安全,请先补充。
现在去补充
×
提示
您因"违规操作"
具体请查看互助需知
我知道了
×
提示
确定
请完成安全验证×
copy
已复制链接
快去分享给好友吧!
我知道了
右上角分享
点击右上角分享
0
联系我们:info@booksci.cn Book学术提供免费学术资源搜索服务,方便国内外学者检索中英文文献。致力于提供最便捷和优质的服务体验。 Copyright © 2023 布克学术 All rights reserved.
京ICP备2023020795号-1
ghs 京公网安备 11010802042870号
Book学术文献互助
Book学术文献互助群
群 号:481959085
Book学术官方微信