The effect of urban rail station area development on the vulnerability of city blocks to infectious disease spread

Urban rail transit-oriented development (TOD) always promotes the economic, ecological and social sustainability of wider areas by developing rail station areas (RSAs). However, less is focused on its influence on the safety, especially facing epidemic threats. This study explored the significance and heterogeneity of RSA development influencing the vulnerability of city-blocks to the spread of infectious diseases, using Beijing (China) case and applying the statistical analysis of ‘disordered multiple logistic regression model’ and the visualization method of ArcGIS. We found distributions of city-blocks’ population vulnerability (PV) and built environmental vulnerability (EV) are typically associated with the rail network. Blocks with a large RSA coverage are more likely to show high PV but different EV, blocks with a high RSA rail interchange level are more likely to exhibit low EV but different PV. The effect of the RSA commercial service level is insignificant. This study verified the growth and decline in the PV and EV of blocks are probably due to ‘temporal difference’ and ‘spatial difference’ of RSA development, highlighting the need to be vigilant in different scenarios of RSA development. The results will contribute to risk identification, containment decisions and integrative planning for safety and development in areas with RSAs.