基于模糊推理和风险屋的钢铁制造供应链风险缓解分析框架

Fadhil Adita Ramadhan , Agus Mansur , Nashrullah Setiawan , Mohd Rizal Salleh
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引用次数: 0

摘要

本研究将风险之家(HOR)方法与模糊推理系统(FIS)相结合,通过解决市场不确定性和运营挑战来管理钢铁制造中的供应链风险,以提高稳定性和生产率。本研究首先使用HOR进行风险识别,并根据严重程度和频率计算模糊综合风险优先级(FARP)。然后,利用专家访谈和文献综述的数据,应用基于Mamdani的FIS来确定风险的优先级并制定缓解策略。研究结果强调,供应商订单失败是FARP得分最高的最大风险,因此提出了50项缓解措施,包括管理库存系统和供应商多样化,以加强供应链弹性并减少脆弱性。然而,本研究仅限于钢铁制造行业,并依赖于专家意见和二手数据,这可能会影响通用性。未来的研究可以将这种方法应用于其他行业,并结合实时数据进行验证。拟议的缓解战略为供应链管理人员提供了可行的见解,帮助公司提高运营稳定性并有效适应市场的不确定性。通过引入整合的HOR和FIS方法,本研究为全面的供应链风险管理提供了一个动态和系统的框架,为该领域提供了原创的见解。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
An analytical risk mitigation framework for steel fabrication supply chains using fuzzy inference and house of risk
This study integrates the House of Risk (HOR) approach with the Fuzzy Inference System (FIS) to manage supply chain risks in steel fabrication by addressing market uncertainties and operational challenges to enhance stability and productivity. The study begins with risk identification using HOR and the calculation of fuzzy aggregate risk priority (FARP) based on severity and frequency. A Mamdani based FIS is then applied to prioritize risks and develop mitigation strategies, leveraging data from expert interviews and literature reviews. The findings highlight supplier order failures as the top risk with the highest FARP score, leading to the proposal of 50 mitigation actions, including managed inventory systems and supplier diversification, to strengthen supply chain resilience and reduce vulnerabilities. However, this study is limited to the steel fabrication industry and relies on expert opinions and secondary data, which may affect generalizability. Future research can apply this approach to other industries and incorporate realtime data for validation. The proposed mitigation strategies offer actionable insights for supply chain managers, helping companies improve operational stability and adapt effectively to market uncertainties. By introducing an integrated HOR and FIS approach, this study provides a dynamic and systematic framework for comprehensive supply chain risk management, offering original insights to the field.
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