{"title":"根据筛查和检测过程的变化调整癌症发病率趋势的估计。","authors":"Bastien Trächsel, Valentin Rousson, Jean-Luc Bulliard, Isabella Locatelli","doi":"10.1002/sim.70063","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Cancer is a major public health issue, and monitoring its incidence is important to suggest and evaluate the impact of preventive interventions. However, estimating trends in cancer incidence is often difficult due to changes in screening or other detection processes over time, which can artificially inflate or deflate the observed incidences. We propose a new method for estimating trends in cancer incidence adjusted for such changes, using a constrained Almon distributed lag model. Unlike other approaches, our method does not rely on any knowledge of cancer progression, or detailed evolution of screening practice over time. It requires the registration of the stages (I-IV) of detected cancers while assuming that the distribution of these stages remains constant in the absence of any change in screening practice. Our method is able to recover the real underlying cancer incidence in simulated data reproducing either no change or a gradual or sudden change in screening practice. For illustration, it is applied to registry data from the canton of Geneva, Switzerland, to estimate breast cancer incidence for the period 1991-2016, where it downwardly corrects the observed incidence when an organized screening program was started.</p>","PeriodicalId":21879,"journal":{"name":"Statistics in Medicine","volume":"44 7","pages":"e70063"},"PeriodicalIF":1.8000,"publicationDate":"2025-03-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Estimation of Cancer Incidence Trends Adjusted for Changes in Screening and Detection Processes.\",\"authors\":\"Bastien Trächsel, Valentin Rousson, Jean-Luc Bulliard, Isabella Locatelli\",\"doi\":\"10.1002/sim.70063\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p><p>Cancer is a major public health issue, and monitoring its incidence is important to suggest and evaluate the impact of preventive interventions. However, estimating trends in cancer incidence is often difficult due to changes in screening or other detection processes over time, which can artificially inflate or deflate the observed incidences. We propose a new method for estimating trends in cancer incidence adjusted for such changes, using a constrained Almon distributed lag model. Unlike other approaches, our method does not rely on any knowledge of cancer progression, or detailed evolution of screening practice over time. It requires the registration of the stages (I-IV) of detected cancers while assuming that the distribution of these stages remains constant in the absence of any change in screening practice. Our method is able to recover the real underlying cancer incidence in simulated data reproducing either no change or a gradual or sudden change in screening practice. For illustration, it is applied to registry data from the canton of Geneva, Switzerland, to estimate breast cancer incidence for the period 1991-2016, where it downwardly corrects the observed incidence when an organized screening program was started.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":21879,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Statistics in Medicine\",\"volume\":\"44 7\",\"pages\":\"e70063\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":1.8000,\"publicationDate\":\"2025-03-30\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Statistics in Medicine\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"3\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1002/sim.70063\",\"RegionNum\":4,\"RegionCategory\":\"医学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q3\",\"JCRName\":\"MATHEMATICAL & COMPUTATIONAL BIOLOGY\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Statistics in Medicine","FirstCategoryId":"3","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1002/sim.70063","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"MATHEMATICAL & COMPUTATIONAL BIOLOGY","Score":null,"Total":0}
Estimation of Cancer Incidence Trends Adjusted for Changes in Screening and Detection Processes.
Cancer is a major public health issue, and monitoring its incidence is important to suggest and evaluate the impact of preventive interventions. However, estimating trends in cancer incidence is often difficult due to changes in screening or other detection processes over time, which can artificially inflate or deflate the observed incidences. We propose a new method for estimating trends in cancer incidence adjusted for such changes, using a constrained Almon distributed lag model. Unlike other approaches, our method does not rely on any knowledge of cancer progression, or detailed evolution of screening practice over time. It requires the registration of the stages (I-IV) of detected cancers while assuming that the distribution of these stages remains constant in the absence of any change in screening practice. Our method is able to recover the real underlying cancer incidence in simulated data reproducing either no change or a gradual or sudden change in screening practice. For illustration, it is applied to registry data from the canton of Geneva, Switzerland, to estimate breast cancer incidence for the period 1991-2016, where it downwardly corrects the observed incidence when an organized screening program was started.
期刊介绍:
The journal aims to influence practice in medicine and its associated sciences through the publication of papers on statistical and other quantitative methods. Papers will explain new methods and demonstrate their application, preferably through a substantive, real, motivating example or a comprehensive evaluation based on an illustrative example. Alternatively, papers will report on case-studies where creative use or technical generalizations of established methodology is directed towards a substantive application. Reviews of, and tutorials on, general topics relevant to the application of statistics to medicine will also be published. The main criteria for publication are appropriateness of the statistical methods to a particular medical problem and clarity of exposition. Papers with primarily mathematical content will be excluded. The journal aims to enhance communication between statisticians, clinicians and medical researchers.