根据筛查和检测过程的变化调整癌症发病率趋势的估计。

IF 1.8 4区 医学 Q3 MATHEMATICAL & COMPUTATIONAL BIOLOGY
Bastien Trächsel, Valentin Rousson, Jean-Luc Bulliard, Isabella Locatelli
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引用次数: 0

摘要

癌症是一个重大的公共卫生问题,监测癌症发病率对于建议和评估预防干预措施的影响非常重要。然而,由于筛查或其他检测过程会随着时间的推移而发生变化,这可能会人为抬高或降低观察到的发病率,因此估算癌症发病率的趋势通常比较困难。我们提出了一种新方法,利用受约束的阿尔蒙分布式滞后模型来估计癌症发病率的趋势,并对这种变化进行调整。与其他方法不同的是,我们的方法不依赖于任何有关癌症进展的知识,也不依赖于筛查实践随时间推移而发生的详细演变。它要求对检测出的癌症分期(I-IV 期)进行登记,同时假设在筛查实践没有任何变化的情况下,这些分期的分布保持不变。我们的方法能够在模拟数据中恢复真实的基本癌症发病率,这些模拟数据再现了筛查方法的不变、渐变或突变。例如,我们将该方法应用于瑞士日内瓦州的登记数据,以估算 1991-2016 年期间的乳腺癌发病率,并在开始实施有组织筛查计划时向下修正了观察到的发病率。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Estimation of Cancer Incidence Trends Adjusted for Changes in Screening and Detection Processes.

Cancer is a major public health issue, and monitoring its incidence is important to suggest and evaluate the impact of preventive interventions. However, estimating trends in cancer incidence is often difficult due to changes in screening or other detection processes over time, which can artificially inflate or deflate the observed incidences. We propose a new method for estimating trends in cancer incidence adjusted for such changes, using a constrained Almon distributed lag model. Unlike other approaches, our method does not rely on any knowledge of cancer progression, or detailed evolution of screening practice over time. It requires the registration of the stages (I-IV) of detected cancers while assuming that the distribution of these stages remains constant in the absence of any change in screening practice. Our method is able to recover the real underlying cancer incidence in simulated data reproducing either no change or a gradual or sudden change in screening practice. For illustration, it is applied to registry data from the canton of Geneva, Switzerland, to estimate breast cancer incidence for the period 1991-2016, where it downwardly corrects the observed incidence when an organized screening program was started.

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来源期刊
Statistics in Medicine
Statistics in Medicine 医学-公共卫生、环境卫生与职业卫生
CiteScore
3.40
自引率
10.00%
发文量
334
审稿时长
2-4 weeks
期刊介绍: The journal aims to influence practice in medicine and its associated sciences through the publication of papers on statistical and other quantitative methods. Papers will explain new methods and demonstrate their application, preferably through a substantive, real, motivating example or a comprehensive evaluation based on an illustrative example. Alternatively, papers will report on case-studies where creative use or technical generalizations of established methodology is directed towards a substantive application. Reviews of, and tutorials on, general topics relevant to the application of statistics to medicine will also be published. The main criteria for publication are appropriateness of the statistical methods to a particular medical problem and clarity of exposition. Papers with primarily mathematical content will be excluded. The journal aims to enhance communication between statisticians, clinicians and medical researchers.
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