Pre-fracture functional status and 30-day recovery predict 5-year survival in patients with hip fracture: findings from a prospective real-world study.

Disability overcomes mortality burden in older adults with hip fracture, expanding unhealthy lifespan. Building comprehensive assessment, pre-fracture functional status and 30-day post-surgical recovery are the most powerful predictors of 5-years survival. A tool supporting estimation of long-term survival may optimize the appropriate delivery of targeted interventions.

Background: Older people with hip fractures are highly heterogeneous patients, impacting health and economic systems. The availability of tools to estimate survival may help optimize patients' outcomes and treatment management decisions.

Methods: A prospective observational study was conducted on older patients with hip fractures who received baseline and 30-day comprehensive assessment from discharge, focusing on functional status based on Basic Activity of Daily Living (BADL). The primary outcome was to identify predictors of 5-year survival and develop nomograms to be adopted at admission or 30 days after discharge.

Result: Among 231 hip fracture patients, 5-year survival was 38.3% in men and 61.9% in women; women experienced a 1.8 higher likelihood of survival than men. Pre-fracture functional status predicted mortality as a function of age. At hospital admission, pre-fracture BADL level was a protective factor (HR 0.742; 95% CI 0.668-0.825), while male gender (HR 1.840; 95% CI 1.192-2.841), age (HR 1.070; 95% CI 1.037-1.105), and multimorbidity (HR 1.096; 95% CI 1.007-1.193) were independent mortality risk factors. At the 30-day follow-up visit, the BADL recovery gap was an independent predictor of 5-year survival (HR 1.439; 95% CI 1.158-1.789), in addition to male gender (HR 1.773; 95% CI 1.146-2.744), age (HR 1.046; 95% CI 1.010-1.083), and pre-fracture BADL (HR 0.621; 95% CI 0.528-0.730), while comorbidity disappeared (HR 1.083; 95% CI 0.994-1.179).

Conclusion: More than half of hip fracture patients are still alive 5 years after surgical repair. Pre-fracture functional status and a 30-day functional recovery gap are the main predictors of survival. Nomograms may help to define prognosis and suitable interventions.