波罗的海国家-拉脱维亚、立陶宛和爱沙尼亚至2050年光伏发电的LCOE估计

Kristina Lebedeva , Anatolijs Borodinecs , Arturs Palcikovskis , Robert Wawerka , Nikolaos Skandalos
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引用次数: 0

摘要

本研究探讨了到2050年在波罗的海国家(拉脱维亚、立陶宛和爱沙尼亚)的多公寓建筑中安装屋顶光伏(PV)系统的经济可行性和长期潜力。使用随机建模和蒙特卡罗模拟,它独特地评估了该部门的平准化电力成本(LCOE),解决了经济、技术和政策因素的不确定性。结果表明,屋顶光伏系统在经济上是可行的,拉脱维亚和立陶宛的平均LCOE值为0.08欧元/千瓦时,爱沙尼亚为0.09欧元/千瓦时,贴现率为6%。资本支出(CAPEX)是最关键的因素,预计到2050年将大幅降低成本,进一步提高可行性。该地区的屋顶太阳能潜力估计为40吉瓦,到2050年可能吸引超过1500亿欧元的投资。补贴、净计量和欧盟资助等政府激励措施推动了该技术的采用,近年来的装机容量超过了预期。然而,集体自我消费框架和能源社区政策方面的差距仍然存在。例如,立陶宛的“虚拟净账单”模式促进了采用,但能源社区的倡议仍然不发达。该研究强调了屋顶光伏系统在实现欧盟能源目标、减少对化石燃料的依赖以及加强能源安全方面的关键作用,因为波罗的海国家将在2025年融入欧洲电网。根据欧盟指令和联合国可持续发展目标(SDG-7),调整政策、培育社区驱动模式和完善监管框架对于最大限度地发挥太阳能对可持续能源转型的贡献至关重要。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Estimation of LCOE for PV electricity production in the Baltic States - Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia until 2050
This study explores the economic feasibility and long-term potential of rooftop photovoltaic (PV) systems in multi-apartment buildings across the Baltic States (Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia) through 2050. Using stochastic modeling and Monte Carlo simulations, it uniquely evaluates the Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE) for this sector, addressing uncertainties in economic, technical, and policy factors.
The results show that rooftop PV systems are economically viable, with median LCOE values of 0.08 EUR/kWh for Latvia and Lithuania and 0.09 EUR/kWh for Estonia at a 6 % discount rate. Capital expenditures (CAPEX) are the most critical factor, with projected significant cost reductions by 2050 further enhancing viability. The region's rooftop solar potential, estimated at 40 GW, could attract over 150 billion euros in investments by 2050.
Government incentives like subsidies, net metering, and EU funding have driven adoption, with installed capacities exceeding projections in recent years. However, gaps in collective self-consumption frameworks and energy community policies persist. For instance, Lithuania's "virtual net billing" model has boosted adoption, yet energy community initiatives remain underdeveloped.
The study highlights rooftop PV systems' critical role in achieving EU energy goals, reducing reliance on fossil fuels, and enhancing energy security as the Baltic States integrate into the European electricity grid in 2025. Aligning policies, fostering community-driven models, and improving regulatory frameworks are essential for maximizing solar energy's contribution to sustainable energy transitions, in line with EU directives and UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDG-7).
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CiteScore
5.50
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