全球、地区和国家的沙眼负担：1990-2021年的跨国不平等，以及到2040年的预测。

IF 2.6 3区医学 Q2 OPHTHALMOLOGY

Ophthalmology and Therapy Pub Date : 2025-03-28 DOI:10.1007/s40123-025-01102-5

Yang Meng, Furong Li, Shun Zeng, Chaoqun Liang, Wei Chi

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引用次数: 0

摘要

简介：在这项工作中，我们旨在评估 1990 年至 2021 年全球沙眼负担的趋势和跨国不平等情况，并预测 2040 年的负担情况：在这项工作中，我们旨在评估 1990 年至 2021 年全球沙眼负担的趋势和跨国不平等现象，并预测 2040 年的负担情况：本研究对《2021 年全球疾病负担研究》（GBD）进行了系统分析。从 GBD 2021 数据库中提取了沙眼患病率和残疾调整生命年（DALYs）的估计值。报告了全球、地区和国家层面的沙眼流行病学特征。采用了趋势分析、分解分析和健康不平等分析。通过贝叶斯年龄段队列分析，进一步预测了到 2040 年的全球沙眼负担：结果：据估计，2021 年全球有 1,414,047 人患有沙眼，年龄标准化患病率为每 10 万人 16.37 例。从 1990 年到 2021 年，沙眼发病率和残疾调整寿命年数分别下降了 30.2% 和 34.4%。2021 年，撒哈拉以南非洲东部是沙眼病例最多的地区，埃塞俄比亚是沙眼病例最多的国家。分解分析表明，全球负担的减轻主要归因于流行病学的变化。从 1990 年到 2021 年，社会人口指数（SDI）较低的国家不成比例地承受了最沉重的负担。预计从 2022 年到 2040 年，患病率和残疾调整寿命年数率将下降，但患病病例和残疾调整寿命年数将增加：在过去的三十年中，沙眼给全球带来的负担已显著减轻，但各国间与沙眼相关的不平等现象依然存在。尽管患病率有所下降，但预计从 2022 年到 2040 年，沙眼患者人数仍将增加。我们的研究为在全球范围内消除沙眼提供了宝贵的见解。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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Global, Regional, and National Burden of Trachoma: Cross-Country Inequalities, 1990-2021, with Projections to 2040.

Introduction: In this work, we aim to evaluate the trends and cross-country inequalities of the global trachoma burden from 1990 to 2021 and to project its burden to 2040.

Methods: This study was a systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Diseases Study (GBD) 2021. Estimates for the prevalence and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) of trachoma were extracted from the GBD 2021 database. Epidemiological characteristics of trachoma were reported at the global, regional, and national levels. Trend analysis, decomposition analysis, and health inequality analysis were used. The global trachoma burden was further projected to 2040 via Bayesian age-period-cohort analysis.

Results: Globally, 1,414,047 people were estimated to have trachoma in 2021, with an age-standardized prevalence rate of 16.37 per 100,000 population. Between 1990 and 2021, the prevalent cases and DALY numbers of trachoma decreased by 30.2% and 34.4%, respectively. In 2021, Eastern Sub-Saharan Africa was the region, and Ethiopia was the country with the highest number of trachoma cases. Decomposition analysis revealed that the reduction in the global burden was attributed primarily to epidemiological changes. From 1990 to 2021, countries with lower sociodemographic indices (SDIs) disproportionately bore the heaviest burden. While the prevalence and DALY rates are projected to decrease from 2022 to 2040, the prevalent cases and DALY numbers are expected to increase.

Conclusions: Over the past three decades, the global burden of trachoma has decreased significantly, but SDI-related inequalities among countries have persisted. Despite reductions in the prevalence rate, the number of patients with trachoma is projected to increase from 2022 to 2040. Our study provides valuable insights into the elimination of trachoma worldwide.

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来源期刊

Ophthalmology and Therapy OPHTHALMOLOGY-

CiteScore

4.20

自引率

3.00%

发文量

157

审稿时长

6 weeks

期刊介绍： Aims and Scope Ophthalmology and Therapy is an international, open access, peer-reviewed (single-blind), and rapid publication journal. The scope of the journal is broad and will consider all scientifically sound research from preclinical, clinical (all phases), observational, real-world, and health outcomes research around the use of ophthalmological therapies, devices, and surgical techniques. The journal is of interest to a broad audience of pharmaceutical and healthcare professionals and publishes original research, reviews, case reports/series, trial protocols and short communications such as commentaries and editorials. Ophthalmology and Therapy will consider all scientifically sound research be it positive, confirmatory or negative data. Submissions are welcomed whether they relate to an international and/or a country-specific audience, something that is crucially important when researchers are trying to target more specific patient populations. 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