{"title":"厄瓜多尔的美元化：2000-2024","authors":"Michael B. Connolly","doi":"10.1007/s10479-024-06365-y","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This paper adopts a Markowitz inspired treatment of uncertainty in inflation and the exchange rate in analyzing the dollarization of Ecuador in 2000. The adoption of the U.S. dollar set a fixed price of foreign (and domestic) currency of one, with zero nominal return and zero variance. Dollarization thus stabilized inflation, guaranteed convertibility in foreign trade and resuscitated the stock exchange in Quito. The dollar served the role of the risk-free asset, save for the risk of U.S. inflation. However, in over 20 years, Ecuador has paid seigniorage to the U.S. Treasury of an accumulated $20 billion in outside money, dollar currency and coin. In 2023, we estimate an operational expense in terms of new seigniorage and the inflationary tax of slightly more than 1% of its GDP. Yet Ecuador has stabilized prices and grown more rapidly, coincidently, by 1.2%.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":8215,"journal":{"name":"Annals of Operations Research","volume":"346 1","pages":"693 - 701"},"PeriodicalIF":4.4000,"publicationDate":"2024-11-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s10479-024-06365-y.pdf","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Dollarization in Ecuador: 2000–2024\",\"authors\":\"Michael B. Connolly\",\"doi\":\"10.1007/s10479-024-06365-y\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div><p>This paper adopts a Markowitz inspired treatment of uncertainty in inflation and the exchange rate in analyzing the dollarization of Ecuador in 2000. The adoption of the U.S. dollar set a fixed price of foreign (and domestic) currency of one, with zero nominal return and zero variance. Dollarization thus stabilized inflation, guaranteed convertibility in foreign trade and resuscitated the stock exchange in Quito. The dollar served the role of the risk-free asset, save for the risk of U.S. inflation. However, in over 20 years, Ecuador has paid seigniorage to the U.S. Treasury of an accumulated $20 billion in outside money, dollar currency and coin. In 2023, we estimate an operational expense in terms of new seigniorage and the inflationary tax of slightly more than 1% of its GDP. Yet Ecuador has stabilized prices and grown more rapidly, coincidently, by 1.2%.</p></div>\",\"PeriodicalId\":8215,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Annals of Operations Research\",\"volume\":\"346 1\",\"pages\":\"693 - 701\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":4.4000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-11-06\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s10479-024-06365-y.pdf\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Annals of Operations Research\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"91\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10479-024-06365-y\",\"RegionNum\":3,\"RegionCategory\":\"管理学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"OPERATIONS RESEARCH & MANAGEMENT SCIENCE\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Annals of Operations Research","FirstCategoryId":"91","ListUrlMain":"https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10479-024-06365-y","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"OPERATIONS RESEARCH & MANAGEMENT SCIENCE","Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper adopts a Markowitz inspired treatment of uncertainty in inflation and the exchange rate in analyzing the dollarization of Ecuador in 2000. The adoption of the U.S. dollar set a fixed price of foreign (and domestic) currency of one, with zero nominal return and zero variance. Dollarization thus stabilized inflation, guaranteed convertibility in foreign trade and resuscitated the stock exchange in Quito. The dollar served the role of the risk-free asset, save for the risk of U.S. inflation. However, in over 20 years, Ecuador has paid seigniorage to the U.S. Treasury of an accumulated $20 billion in outside money, dollar currency and coin. In 2023, we estimate an operational expense in terms of new seigniorage and the inflationary tax of slightly more than 1% of its GDP. Yet Ecuador has stabilized prices and grown more rapidly, coincidently, by 1.2%.
期刊介绍：
The Annals of Operations Research publishes peer-reviewed original articles dealing with key aspects of operations research, including theory, practice, and computation. The journal publishes full-length research articles, short notes, expositions and surveys, reports on computational studies, and case studies that present new and innovative practical applications.
In addition to regular issues, the journal publishes periodic special volumes that focus on defined fields of operations research, ranging from the highly theoretical to the algorithmic and the applied. These volumes have one or more Guest Editors who are responsible for collecting the papers and overseeing the refereeing process.
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