Longitudinal Patterns of Opioid Dispensing Dosages for Compensated Australian Workers with Low Back Pain: A 3.5-Year Follow-Up Study.

Objective: To identify longitudinal patterns in opioid dispensing dosages for workers with low back pain within a workers' compensation setting and to explore the risk factors associated with high-dose and persistent opioid use.

Method: We included workers with accepted claims for low back pain received by insurers between 01/01/2010 and 30/06/2016, with a follow-up period of 3.5 years (data censoring on 31/12/2020) across Victoria. Trajectory modelling was used to identify different opioid dispensing patterns. Logistic regressions were utilized to compare the workers' characteristics across different opioid dispensing pattern groups.

Results: Among 14,703 accepted claims, 33.1% reported receiving opioid medications as part of their claims. Six opioid dispensing patterns were identified. Individuals in the highest socioeconomic status (SES) quintile were less likely to rapidly escalate to dispensing high-dose opioids (OR 0.58, 99% CI 0.34, 0.99) compared to other quintiles. Workers dispensed gabapentinoids and antidepressants showed an increased risk of long-term high-dose opioid use (OR: 7.96, 99% CI 5.42, 11.69; OR: 21.75, 99% CI 14.30, 33.08) relative to workers with a single opioid dispensing. Those who had surgery were also more likely to use long-term high-dose opioids compared to a non-surgery group.

Conclusion: Lower SES, having gabapentinoids or antidepressants prescriptions or having had surgery are all associated with persistent opioid use among workers with LBP. These demographic and clinical risk factors for developing persistent opioid use could help identify individuals who would benefit from early intervention, reducing the likelihood of opioid dependence for pain management and minimizing the risk of harm.