Current and Projected Future Supply and Demand for Physical Therapists From 2022 to 2037: A New Approach Using Microsimulation.

Importance: Projections of physical therapist supply and demand provide critical insights into workforce trends, including factors that may influence possible shortages.

Objective: This study evaluates the current and forecasted adequacy of the physical therapist workforce in the United States to meet the evolving health care needs of the population.

Design: This is a cross-sectional study that combines survey data, analysis of administrative databases, and microsimulation modeling.

Setting: The study evaluates future demand for physical therapists across all employment and care delivery settings. Projections of supply and demand are compared to assess workforce adequacy nationally and by state through 2037.

Participants: Supply modeling incorporates a representative sample of physical therapists from each state, derived from the Federation of State Boards of Physical Therapy (FSBPT) counts and demographic data from the American Physical Therapy Association (APTA) member database. An online survey administered in April 2024 to APTA members (n = 1759 completed surveys, 18% response rate) collected data on demographics, practice characteristics, workload, hours worked, and retirement intentions.

Intervention: The study examines key factors influencing the physical therapist workforce, including demographics, care delivery patterns, workload, hours worked, and provider retention.

Main outcomes: The study forecasts annual full-time equivalent (FTE) physical therapist supply and demand through 2037, with state-level analysis and additional forecasts for alternative forecast scenarios.

Results: In 2022, there were an estimated 233,890 FTE physical therapists in the workforce. A projected shortfall of 12,070 FTEs (5.2%) in 2022 was identified relative to population demand. Although projected supply growth from 2022 to 2037 (39,170 FTEs) exceeds demand growth (36,280 FTEs), a national shortfall remains in most forecast scenarios. By 2037, the physical therapist supply is expected to reach 273,070 FTEs, while demand will increase to 282,230 FTEs, resulting in a projected shortfall of 9120 FTEs (3.3%) in the main scenario.

Conclusions: Unless measures are implemented to boost the number of physical therapists entering or re-entering the workforce, or policies are enacted to improve retention, the national shortfall is likely to persist, further exacerbating access to care challenges.

Relevance: This study underscores the need for targeted policy interventions to address workforce shortages and additional research into health care workforce forecasting.