Risk-Stratified Screening: A Simulation Study of Scheduling Templates on Daily Mammography Recalls

Introduction

Risk-stratified screening (RSS) scheduling may facilitate more effective use of same-day diagnostic testing for potentially abnormal mammograms, thereby reducing the need for follow-up appointments (“recall”). Our simulation study assessed the potential impact of RSS scheduling on patients recommended for same-day diagnostics.

Methods

We used a discrete event simulation to model workflow at a high-volume breast imaging center, incorporating artificial intelligence (AI)-triaged same-day diagnostic workups after screening mammograms. The RSS design sequences patients in the daily screening schedule using cancer risk categories developed from Tyrer-Cuzick and deep learning model scores. We compared recall variance, required hours of operation to accommodate all patients, and patient wait times using traditional (random) and RSS schedules.

Results

The baseline simulation included 60 daily patients, with an average of 42% receiving screening mammograms and 11% (about three patients) being recommended for diagnostic workups. Compared with traditional scheduling, RSS scheduling reduces recall variance by up to 30% (1.98 versus 2.82, P < .05). With same-day diagnostics, RSS scheduling had a modest impact, increasing the number of patients served within normal operating hours by up to 1.3% (55.4 versus 54.7, P < .05), decreasing necessary operational hours by 12 min (10.3 versus 10.5 hours, P < .05), and increasing patient waiting times by an average of 2.4 min (0.24 versus 0.20 hours, P < .05).

Conclusion

Our simulation study suggests that RSS scheduling could reduce recall variance. This approach might enable same-day diagnostics using AI triage by accommodating patients within normal operating hours.