The historical and projected prevalence of dysphagia in Aotearoa New Zealand.

Aim: To estimate the current prevalence of dysphagia in the Aotearoa New Zealand population and to project its prevalence to 2073.

Methods: The current prevalence of dysphagia in Aotearoa New Zealand is computed from the prevalences of the aetiologies of dysphagia combined with the rates at which the aetiologies result in dysphagia. Projected dysphagia rates use autoregressive integrated moving average forecasting techniques combined with population projections from Statistics New Zealand and estimates of current and past prevalence rates of dysphagia.

Results: The prevalence of dysphagia in Aotearoa New Zealand is estimated to have been approximately 1.78% in 2020, with the biggest aetiological contributors being stroke, Alzheimer's disease and other dementias, and gastroesophageal reflux disease. These three causes made up 81.5% of all estimated dysphagia cases in 2019. The prevalence rate of dysphagia in Aotearoa New Zealand is projected to rise to 2.54%, reflecting the ageing population.

Conclusion: An increased prevalence of dysphagia will result in an increased healthcare burden, both from resources spent on treating dysphagia and complications stemming from undiagnosed and thus untreated dysphagia. Estimating the full extent of this increased burden is hampered by the absence of systematic, extensive and reliable records available relating to cases of dysphagia in Aotearoa New Zealand.