受限制分布的一种荆芥的生态位模型及未来展望

IF 1.3 4区 环境科学与生态学 Q3 ECOLOGY
Marlete Moreira Mendes Ivanov , Maria João Martins
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引用次数: 0

摘要

气候变化涉及环境条件的变化,并可能导致流离失所或灭绝(局部或大范围)。那么,在气候变化的情况下,一个有限分布的物种有可能持续存在吗?我们的目标是,通过生态位测绘和建模,描述适合Cordia oncocalyx的环境条件,Cordia oncocalyx是一种主要分布在巴西东北部的本地物种,其丰富程度导致了对Caatinga(一个季节性干燥的热带森林)分类的新类型学的建议。本文还提出了该物种在未来情景下的潜在分布。考虑了影响和限制物种分布的6个气候变量,并估计了物种生态位作为一个三维凸壳。采用RCP 8.5情景下的HadGEM2-ES模式对巴西2050年的生物气候变量进行了预测。高温,低年降水量和极低降水在最干旱的季度在该物种目前发生的地区的气候特征。未来的情景表明,该物种的环境适应性和分布可能会发生变化。面对气候变化,保护区可能无法保护这些物种。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。

Ecological niche modelling and future scenarios of Cordia oncocalyx - A species of restricted distribution

Ecological niche modelling and future scenarios of Cordia oncocalyx - A species of restricted distribution
Climate change involves changes in environmental conditions and can lead to the displacement or extinction (local or range-wide). So, would it be possible for a species with a restricted distribution to persist under climate change scenarios? Our objective was, through niche mapping and modeling, to describe the suitable environmental conditions for Cordia oncocalyx, a native species that occurs predominantly in the northeast of Brazil, whose abundance has resulted in the proposal of a new typology for classifying the Caatinga – a seasonally dry tropical forest. The potential distribution of this species in the context of future scenarios is also presented. Six climatic variables that could affect and limit species distributions were considered, and species niche as a 3-dimensional convex hull was estimated. The HadGEM2-ES model under scenario RCP 8.5 was used to predict the bioclimatic variables in Brazil for 2050. High temperatures, low annual precipitation and very low precipitation in the driest quarter characterize the climate in the areas where the species currently occurs. Future scenarios point to the possibility of changes in the environmental suitability and distribution of this species. Protected areas may not be able to preserve the species in the face of climate change.
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来源期刊
CiteScore
3.60
自引率
0.00%
发文量
57
审稿时长
>0 weeks
期刊介绍: Acta Oecologica is venue for the publication of original research articles in ecology. We encourage studies in all areas of ecology, including ecosystem ecology, community ecology, population ecology, conservation ecology and evolutionary ecology. There is no bias with respect to taxon, biome or geographic area. Both theoretical and empirical papers are welcome, but combinations are particularly sought. Priority is given to papers based on explicitly stated hypotheses. Acta Oecologica also accepts review papers.
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