{"title":"一个新的公式,以提高准确性和预后能力,确定乳腺癌复发后的生存时间。","authors":"Reiki Nishimura, Yasuaki Sagara, Reiko Mitsueda, Tetsuhiko Taira, Toshiko Miyaki, Shuichi Kanemitsu, Megumi Teraoka, Junko Kawano, Naomi Gondo, Yoshitaka Fujiki, Ryutaro Higashi, Akiko Semba, Yasuyo Ohi, Yoshiaki Rai, Yoshiaki Sagara, Shinji Ohno","doi":"10.1007/s12282-025-01677-8","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>Recurrent breast cancer (BC) has poor prognosis. To ascertain the survival time after recurrence (STR) is necessary for improving QOL and for selecting appropriate treatment. An investigation was conducted to determine whether certain biomarkers would improve prognosis and whether the disease-free interval (DFI) and biomarkers can predict STR.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>Cases (n = 1,254) with recurrent BC from January 2000 to December 2023 were enrolled in this study. The cases were divided into the 2000-2005 group (n = 182), 2006-2011 group (n = 331), 2012-2017 group (n = 369), and 2018-2023 group (n = 366). A simple linear regression model was used to identify the relationship between STR and DFI.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>Survival rates after recurrence significantly increased in cases after 2012. No improvement was observed in cases with a HER2-0 status and a Ki-67 index value < 15%. A multivariate analysis revealed that the Ki-67 index value was a significant factor in the 2000-2005 group. The ER and HER2 status were significant after 2012. The most significant correlation was found between DFI and STR in deceased patients with a Ki-67 index value > 30%, followed by HER2-low, tumor size ≤ 2 cm and ER < 1%. The following formula was developed to predict STR; <math><mrow><mtext>STR (mons)</mtext> <mo>=</mo> <msub><mi>α</mi> <mn>0</mn></msub> <mo>+</mo> <msub><mi>β</mi> <mn>0</mn></msub> <mo>∙</mo> <mtext>DFI</mtext> <mo>+</mo> <msubsup><mo>∑</mo> <mrow><mi>i</mi> <mo>=</mo> <mn>1</mn></mrow> <mn>5</mn></msubsup> <msub><mi>F</mi> <mi>i</mi></msub> <mfenced><msub><mi>α</mi> <mi>i</mi></msub> <mo>+</mo> <msub><mi>β</mi> <mi>i</mi></msub> <mo>∙</mo> <mtext>DFI</mtext></mfenced> </mrow> </math> CONCLUSION: Prognosis after recurrence clearly improved from 2012. In recurrent deceased patients, there was a strong correlation between DFI and STR in cases with a Ki-67 index value > 30% and a HER2-low status. Further studies need to be conducted in clinical settings to verify the accuracy of the predictive formula developed for STR.</p>","PeriodicalId":56083,"journal":{"name":"Breast Cancer","volume":" ","pages":"491-499"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9000,"publicationDate":"2025-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"A novel formula to improve the accuracy and prognostic ability of determining the survival time after recurrent breast cancer.\",\"authors\":\"Reiki Nishimura, Yasuaki Sagara, Reiko Mitsueda, Tetsuhiko Taira, Toshiko Miyaki, Shuichi Kanemitsu, Megumi Teraoka, Junko Kawano, Naomi Gondo, Yoshitaka Fujiki, Ryutaro Higashi, Akiko Semba, Yasuyo Ohi, Yoshiaki Rai, Yoshiaki Sagara, Shinji Ohno\",\"doi\":\"10.1007/s12282-025-01677-8\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p><strong>Background: </strong>Recurrent breast cancer (BC) has poor prognosis. To ascertain the survival time after recurrence (STR) is necessary for improving QOL and for selecting appropriate treatment. An investigation was conducted to determine whether certain biomarkers would improve prognosis and whether the disease-free interval (DFI) and biomarkers can predict STR.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>Cases (n = 1,254) with recurrent BC from January 2000 to December 2023 were enrolled in this study. The cases were divided into the 2000-2005 group (n = 182), 2006-2011 group (n = 331), 2012-2017 group (n = 369), and 2018-2023 group (n = 366). A simple linear regression model was used to identify the relationship between STR and DFI.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>Survival rates after recurrence significantly increased in cases after 2012. No improvement was observed in cases with a HER2-0 status and a Ki-67 index value < 15%. A multivariate analysis revealed that the Ki-67 index value was a significant factor in the 2000-2005 group. The ER and HER2 status were significant after 2012. The most significant correlation was found between DFI and STR in deceased patients with a Ki-67 index value > 30%, followed by HER2-low, tumor size ≤ 2 cm and ER < 1%. The following formula was developed to predict STR; <math><mrow><mtext>STR (mons)</mtext> <mo>=</mo> <msub><mi>α</mi> <mn>0</mn></msub> <mo>+</mo> <msub><mi>β</mi> <mn>0</mn></msub> <mo>∙</mo> <mtext>DFI</mtext> <mo>+</mo> <msubsup><mo>∑</mo> <mrow><mi>i</mi> <mo>=</mo> <mn>1</mn></mrow> <mn>5</mn></msubsup> <msub><mi>F</mi> <mi>i</mi></msub> <mfenced><msub><mi>α</mi> <mi>i</mi></msub> <mo>+</mo> <msub><mi>β</mi> <mi>i</mi></msub> <mo>∙</mo> <mtext>DFI</mtext></mfenced> </mrow> </math> CONCLUSION: Prognosis after recurrence clearly improved from 2012. In recurrent deceased patients, there was a strong correlation between DFI and STR in cases with a Ki-67 index value > 30% and a HER2-low status. Further studies need to be conducted in clinical settings to verify the accuracy of the predictive formula developed for STR.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":56083,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Breast Cancer\",\"volume\":\" \",\"pages\":\"491-499\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":2.9000,\"publicationDate\":\"2025-05-01\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Breast Cancer\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"3\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1007/s12282-025-01677-8\",\"RegionNum\":3,\"RegionCategory\":\"医学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"2025/2/18 0:00:00\",\"PubModel\":\"Epub\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"OBSTETRICS & GYNECOLOGY\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Breast Cancer","FirstCategoryId":"3","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s12282-025-01677-8","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"2025/2/18 0:00:00","PubModel":"Epub","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"OBSTETRICS & GYNECOLOGY","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
摘要
背景:复发性乳腺癌预后较差。确定复发后生存时间(STR)对于提高患者的生活质量和选择合适的治疗方法是必要的。方法:选取2000年1月至2023年12月复发性BC患者(n = 1254)为研究对象,探讨某些生物标志物是否能改善预后以及无病间期(DFI)和生物标志物是否能预测str。病例分为2000-2005年组(182例)、2006-2011年组(331例)、2012-2017年组(369例)和2018-2023年组(366例)。使用简单的线性回归模型来确定STR与DFI之间的关系。结果:2012年以后病例复发后生存率明显提高。HER2-0状态、Ki-67指数为30%的患者无明显改善,其次为her2低、肿瘤大小≤2 cm、ER STR (mons) = α 0 + β 0∙DFI +∑i = 1.5 F i α i + β i∙DFI。结论:复发后预后较2012年有明显改善。在复发性死亡患者中,Ki-67指数值为30%且her2状态低的患者,DFI与STR有很强的相关性。需要在临床环境中进行进一步的研究,以验证为STR开发的预测公式的准确性。
A novel formula to improve the accuracy and prognostic ability of determining the survival time after recurrent breast cancer.
Background: Recurrent breast cancer (BC) has poor prognosis. To ascertain the survival time after recurrence (STR) is necessary for improving QOL and for selecting appropriate treatment. An investigation was conducted to determine whether certain biomarkers would improve prognosis and whether the disease-free interval (DFI) and biomarkers can predict STR.
Methods: Cases (n = 1,254) with recurrent BC from January 2000 to December 2023 were enrolled in this study. The cases were divided into the 2000-2005 group (n = 182), 2006-2011 group (n = 331), 2012-2017 group (n = 369), and 2018-2023 group (n = 366). A simple linear regression model was used to identify the relationship between STR and DFI.
Results: Survival rates after recurrence significantly increased in cases after 2012. No improvement was observed in cases with a HER2-0 status and a Ki-67 index value < 15%. A multivariate analysis revealed that the Ki-67 index value was a significant factor in the 2000-2005 group. The ER and HER2 status were significant after 2012. The most significant correlation was found between DFI and STR in deceased patients with a Ki-67 index value > 30%, followed by HER2-low, tumor size ≤ 2 cm and ER < 1%. The following formula was developed to predict STR; CONCLUSION: Prognosis after recurrence clearly improved from 2012. In recurrent deceased patients, there was a strong correlation between DFI and STR in cases with a Ki-67 index value > 30% and a HER2-low status. Further studies need to be conducted in clinical settings to verify the accuracy of the predictive formula developed for STR.
期刊介绍:
Breast Cancer, the official journal of the Japanese Breast Cancer Society, publishes articles that contribute to progress in the field, in basic or translational research and also in clinical research, seeking to develop a new focus and new perspectives for all who are concerned with breast cancer. The journal welcomes all original articles describing clinical and epidemiological studies and laboratory investigations regarding breast cancer and related diseases. The journal will consider five types of articles: editorials, review articles, original articles, case reports, and rapid communications. Although editorials and review articles will principally be solicited by the editors, they can also be submitted for peer review, as in the case of original articles. The journal provides the best of up-to-date information on breast cancer, presenting readers with high-impact, original work focusing on pivotal issues.