21世纪的太阳地球物理特征和病毒流行

IF 0.7 4区 地球科学 Q4 GEOCHEMISTRY & GEOPHYSICS
M. V. Ragulskaya, V. N. Obridko
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引用次数: 0

摘要

考虑了21世纪的太阳地球物理特征。讨论了第24周期和第25周期的太阳低动力学不仅表现在太阳黑子数量上,而且表现在地磁事件显著减少,太阳宇宙射线强度减弱,银河宇宙射线强度增加。我们还观察到太阳全球磁场(GMF)的变化和奇次谐波幅值的显著下降。提出利用太阳GMF第5次纬向调和的最大值来预测11年太阳活动周期最大值的时间,利用太阳的极场来预测周期的高度。第25个太阳活动周期(SA)的最大值预计在2023年底至2024年初,周期高度不超过131。2025年可能会出现太阳二次活动高峰。流行病学过程可以作为太阳活动全球变化的额外预测因子。在19 - 21世纪期间,病毒大流行的数量在百年太阳活动极小期附近增加了两倍。麻疹疫情的发展大约比11年太阳活动周期的极值期早一年。需要强调的是,太阳活动极小期在病毒流行发展中的作用被大大低估了。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。

Heliogeophysical Features and Viral Epidemics of the 21st Century

Heliogeophysical Features and Viral Epidemics of the 21st Century

Heliogeophysical features of the 21st century are considered. It is discussed that the low solar dynamics of cycles 24 and 25 manifested themselves not only in sunspot number, but also as a significant decrease in geomagnetic events, decreased intensity of solar cosmic rays, and increased intensity of galactic cosmic rays. Changes in the solar GMF and a significant decrease in the amplitude of odd harmonics of the global magnetic field (GMF) of the Sun were also observed. It is proposed to use the maximum of the fifth zonal harmonic of the solar GMF as a predictor of the time of the maximum of the 11-year solar activity cycle, and the polar field of the Sun to predict the height of the cycle. The maximum of the 25th cycle of solar activity (SA) predicted by the authors was expected at the end of 2023–beginning of 2024 with a cycle height of no more than 131. A secondary solar activity maximum is possible during 2025. Epidemiological processes can serve as an additional predictor of global changes in solar activity. The number of viral pandemics during the 19th–21st centuries was tripled near centennial solar activity minima. Measles epidemics are developing approximately a year prior to the onset of extrema of the 11-year solar activity cycle. It is emphasized that the role of solar activity minima in the development of viral epidemics is significantly underestimated.

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来源期刊
Geomagnetism and Aeronomy
Geomagnetism and Aeronomy Earth and Planetary Sciences-Space and Planetary Science
CiteScore
1.30
自引率
33.30%
发文量
65
审稿时长
4-8 weeks
期刊介绍: Geomagnetism and Aeronomy is a bimonthly periodical that covers the fields of interplanetary space; geoeffective solar events; the magnetosphere; the ionosphere; the upper and middle atmosphere; the action of solar variability and activity on atmospheric parameters and climate; the main magnetic field and its secular variations, excursion, and inversion; and other related topics.
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