SARS-CoV-2收敛型病毒波传播过程中流行情景转换的建模方法

IF 1.1 4区 物理与天体物理 Q4 PHYSICS, APPLIED
A. Yu. Perevaryukha
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引用次数: 0

摘要

变异冠状病毒流行波的研究涉及瞬态振荡模式的形式分析。在物理问题中也有类似的振子相位图,但实验中的物理参数是恒定的或可控的。SARS-CoV-2蛋白的适应性是不可预测的。除了我们的直觉,目前还没有方法来预测下一季的实际突变。在宣布战胜疫情后,新冠病毒再次出现,有必要研究新一波疫情的性质。变异病毒流行的当前阶段,格室模型修正的充分性问题在于其可扩展而非阈值变化的自适应方程结构。在我们的研究中,我们根据其非线性动力学特征和物理角度的振荡变换形式对COVID-19流行情景进行了分类。我们发现,自2020年春季以来的SARS-CoV-2动态已经在2022年春季和2023年秋季的Omicron BA.1之后两次改变了感染的自主振荡模式。在全球BA.2.86/JN之后,局部流行病是异步的。1波的形成和衰减。在一些国家,如日本和澳大利亚,波浪流行病变体在质量上有所不同。我们在具体的模型中研究了这些情况。以前与2020年大流行波隔绝的国家出现了频繁的大振幅短波。2024年11月,我们看到了另一个质变的迹象,死亡人数比例不成比例地增加,而感染人数却没有明显增加。两种具有趋同突变迹象的毒株同时出现,结合了冠状病毒的邻近进化分支。只有令人担忧的XEC菌株开始广泛传播,这种菌株对积累的免疫力最敏感。XEC感染的频率在不同地区差别很大。2024年底没有全球流行趋势。新一波秋季感染的病例数低于过去几个季节,但新冠肺炎病死率出人意料地上升。几个国家在一个月内增加了两倍,这表明该流行病正在进入一个新的阶段。我们提出了一种基于描述感染暴发变体的阈值调节函数和确定感染病例数振荡衰减形式的情境阻尼函数的方程来模拟病毒传播突然发展的方法。计算实验模拟了局部流行波衰减阶段后的极端峰值发展变化作为分岔情景。具有不寻常性质的区域波是由于在会聚变异体出现时单一集体感染的影响。在波再激活过程中,初始COVID波后的下降趋势在模型中被大规模感染事件中断,引发SARS-CoV-2感染的爆发,然后进入波动下降模式,具有新的特征。重新排列模型方程的主要参数是新出现的病毒粒子与细胞受体结合亲和力的波动。该模型的一个重要特征是估计新菌株逃避人群中普遍存在的抗体。分析模型切换模式的第三个指标是当地人群中剩余T细胞免疫的有效性。这三个指标不是逐渐同步变化的,而是脉冲变化的。新的变种不像伽马和德尔塔那么致命。趋同菌株的进化可能会产生一种能够引起全局波的Spike蛋白变体,它与我们细胞中的ACE2结合得更好,与基本变体和Omicron BA.2完全不同。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。

A Method for Modeling the Transformation of Epidemic Scenarios during the Propagation of Waves of Convergent SARS-CoV-2 Variants

A Method for Modeling the Transformation of Epidemic Scenarios during the Propagation of Waves of Convergent SARS-CoV-2 Variants

The study of the epidemic waves of mutating coronavirus involves an analysis of the forms of transient oscillatory modes. Similar phase portraits of oscillators are known in physical problems, but the physical parameters in experiments are constant or controlled. The adaptation of SARS-CoV-2 proteins is unpredictable. Apart from our intuition, there are no methods at present to predict actual mutations in the next season. Renewed virus has returned once again after victory over the infection was declared and the properties of the new COVID wave need to be investigated. The problems of adequacy of modifications of сompartmental models at the current stage of the mutant virus epidemic are in their extensible rather than threshold-change adaptive structure of equations. We classified in our studies the scenarios of COVID-19 epidemics according to the characteristic features of their nonlinear dynamics and forms of oscillation transformations in the physical perspective. We show that the SARS-CoV-2 dynamics since 2020 spring has already changed the mode of autonomous oscillations of infections twice after Omicron BA.1 during spring 2022 and in the autumn 2023. Local epidemics are asynchronous after the global BA.2.86/JN.1 wave in both wave formation and attenuation. The wave epidemic variants were qualitatively different in some countries, such as Japan and Australia. We studied these situations in specific models. Frequent short waves of large amplitude developed in countries previously isolated from the 2020 pandemic wave. In November 2024, we see signs of another qualitative change with a disproportionate increase in the percentage of fatalities without a clear increase in the number of infections. Two strains with signs of convergent mutations appeared synchronously combining adjacent evolutionary branches of the coronavirus. Only the alarming XEC strain, the most evasive to accumulated immunity, began to spread widely. The frequency of XEC infections varies considerably between regions. There is no global epidemic trend at the end of 2024. The number of cases in the new autumn wave of infections was lower than in the past seasons, but the COVID case fatality rate is unexpectedly increasing. It tripled in a month in several countries, which indicates that the epidemic is entering a new stage. We propose a method for modeling the abrupt development of the virus spread based on equations with threshold regulation functions describing variants of infection outbreaks and with situational damping functions determining the form of oscillatory decay for the number of infection cases. A computational experiment simulated the variant of extreme peak development after the stage of local epidemic wave attenuation as a bifurcation scenario. The regional wave with unusual properties is due to the effect of a single mass infection at the appearance of the convergent variant. The declining trend after the primary COVID wave is interrupted in the model during wave reactivation by a mass contagion event that induces an outbreak of SARS-CoV-2 infections and then a fluctuation declining mode, new in characteristics. The main parameter for the rearrangement of the model equations is the fluctuation in the binding affinity of emerging virions to cellular receptors. An important feature of the model is the estimation of the evasion of new strains from antibodies prevailing in the populations. The third indicator analyzed for switching modes of the model was the efficacy of remaining T cell immunity in local populations. These three indicators vary not gradually in sync, but in pulses. The new variants are not as virulent as Gamma and Delta. The evolution of convergent strains may give rise to a variant of Spike protein capable of causing a global wave, which binds much better to ACE2 in our cells and is quite different from both the basic variants and Omicron BA.2.

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来源期刊
Technical Physics
Technical Physics 物理-物理:应用
CiteScore
1.30
自引率
14.30%
发文量
139
审稿时长
3-6 weeks
期刊介绍: Technical Physics is a journal that contains practical information on all aspects of applied physics, especially instrumentation and measurement techniques. Particular emphasis is put on plasma physics and related fields such as studies of charged particles in electromagnetic fields, synchrotron radiation, electron and ion beams, gas lasers and discharges. Other journal topics are the properties of condensed matter, including semiconductors, superconductors, gases, liquids, and different materials.
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