Ensemble modelling for smart conservation strategies for forest reptile species at their range edges in Europe amidst climate change

Reptile fauna should be considered a conservation objective, especially in respect of the impacts of climate change on their distribution and range’s dynamics. Investigating the environmental drivers of reptile species richness and identifying their suitable habitats is a fundamental prerequisite to setting efficient long-term conservation measures. This study focused on geographical patterns and estimations of species richness for herpetofauna widely spread Z. vivipara, N. natrix, V. berus, A. colchica, and protected in Latvia C. austriaca, E. orbicularis, L. agilis inhabiting northern (model territory Latvia) and southern (model territory Ukraine) part of their European range. The ultimate goal was to designate a conservation network that will meet long-term goals for survival of the target species in the context of climate change. We used stacked species distribution models for creating maps depicting the distribution of species richness under current and future (by 2050) climates for marginal reptilepopulations. Using cluster analysis, we showed that this herpeto-complex can be divided into “widespread species” and “forest species”. For all forest species we predicted a climate-driven reduction in their distribution range both North (Latvia) and South (Ukraine). The most vulnerable populations of “forest species” tend to be located in the South of their range, as a consequence of northward shifts by 2050. By 2050 the greatest reduction in range is predicted for currently widely spread Z. vivipara (by 1.4 times) and V. berus (by 2.2 times). In terms of designing an effective protected-area network, these results permit to identify priority conservation areas where the full ensemble of selected reptile species can be found, and confirms the relevance of abiotic multi-factor GIS-modelling for achieving this goal.