Predictive Validity of Hospital-Associated Complications of Older People Identified Using Diagnosis Procedure Combination Data From an Acute Care Hospital in Japan: Observational Study.

Background: A composite outcome of hospital-associated complications of older people (HAC-OP; comprising functional decline, delirium, incontinence, falls, and pressure injuries) has been proposed as an outcome measure reflecting quality of acute hospital care. Estimating HAC-OP from routinely collected administrative data could facilitate the rapid and standardized evaluation of interventions in the clinical setting, thereby supporting the development, improvement, and wider implementation of effective interventions.

Objective: This study aimed to create a Diagnosis Procedure Combination (DPC) data version of the HAC-OP measure (HAC-OP-DPC) and demonstrate its predictive validity by assessing its associations with hospital length of stay (LOS) and discharge destination.

Methods: This retrospective cohort study acquired DPC data (routinely collected administrative data) from a general acute care hospital in Tokyo, Japan. We included data from index hospitalizations for patients aged ≥65 years hospitalized for ≥3 days and discharged between July 2016 and March 2021. HAC-OP-DPC were identified using diagnostic codes for functional decline, incontinence, delirium, pressure injury, and falls occurring during the index hospitalization. Generalized linear regression models were used to examine the associations between HAC-OP-DPC and LOS, and logistic regression models were used to examine the associations between HAC-OP-DPC and discharge to other hospitals and long-term care facilities (LTCFs).

Results: Among 15,278 patients, 3610 (23.6%) patients had coding evidence of one or more HAC-OP-DPC (1: 18.8% and ≥2: 4.8%). Using "no HAC-OP-DPC" as the reference category, the analysis showed a significant and graded association with longer LOS (adjusted risk ratio for patients with one HAC-OP-DPC 1.29, 95% CI 1.25-1.33; adjusted risk ratio for ≥2 HAC-OP-DPC 1.97, 95% CI 1.87-2.08), discharge to another hospital (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] for one HAC-OP-DPC 2.36, 95% CI 2.10-2.65; AOR for ≥2 HAC-OP-DPC 6.96, 95% CI 5.81-8.35), and discharge to LTCFs (AOR for one HAC-OP-DPC 1.35, 95% CI 1.09-1.67; AOR for ≥2 HAC-OP-DPC 1.68, 95% CI 1.18-2.39). Each individual HAC-OP was also significantly associated with longer LOS and discharge to another hospital, but only delirium was associated with discharge to LTCF.

Conclusions: This study demonstrated the predictive validity of the HAC-OP-DPC measure for longer LOS and discharge to other hospitals and LTCFs. To attain a more robust understanding of these relationships, additional studies are needed to verify our findings in other hospitals and regions. The clinical implementation of HAC-OP-DPC, which is identified using routinely collected administrative data, could support the evaluation of integrated interventions aimed at optimizing inpatient care for older adults.