Impact of changes in political affinity on opportunism in global supply chain: The moderating role of national culture

Opportunism has long-term negative consequences for global supply chains. While the extant research has traditionally focused on market and institution environment in shaping opportunistic behavior, it has overlooked the bilateral political environment where global supply chain operations are embedded. This study aims to bridge the gap by focusing on the potential influence of changes in political affinity between countries. Drawing on resource dependence theory and legitimacy-based view, this study examines how changes (both positive and negative) in political affinity affect opportunism, as well as, the moderating role of national cultures (uncertainty avoidance and long-term orientation). Using a survey dataset of 381 Chinese firms at two time points and two secondary datasets, this study finds that positive changes in political affinity decrease opportunism, especially when partners are located in a country with high uncertainty avoidance. Moreover, negative changes in political affinity are found to have a U-shape effect on opportunism, which can be strengthened by long-term orientation culture. Our findings offer important implications for academic research and managerial practice by providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of changes in political affinity on opportunism.