变化环境下平稳和非平稳极端水文分析:系统综述

Maximo Basheija Twinomuhangi , Yazidhi Bamutaze , Isa Kabenge , Joshua Wanyama , Michael Kizza , Geoffrey Gabiri , Pascal Emanuel Egli
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引用次数: 0

摘要

由于极端水文事件的频率和破坏力不断增加,以及人类活动和气候变化导致的极端水文事件的非平稳性,对极端水文事件的研究有所增加。为了了解极端分析的最新进展,我们使用PRISMA框架对网络文献进行了系统回顾。这篇综述涵盖了文献中分析的几个方面,如时间序列类型、非平稳性检测技术、频率分析(FA)类别、概率分布类型、使用的协变量、参数估计和模型选择技术。结果表明,最常用的是AMS(71.7%)、Mann-Kendall非平稳性检测检验(70.8%)、GEV分布(41.4%)、ML参数估计(34.6%)和模型选择AIC(30.0%)。非平稳与平稳混合进行的FA最多(82%),非平稳模型的表现优于平稳模型。与人为(7.1%)、局地尺度(11.4%)和大尺度(31.0%)气候协变量相比,时间在大多数研究中被用作协变量(50.5%)。有效的水文极端管理需要了解它们在不断变化的环境中的非平稳性。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Analysis of stationary and non-stationary hydrological extremes under a changing environment: A systematic review
Research on hydrological extremes has increased due to their increasing frequency and destructive power, with their non-stationarity attributed to human activities and climate change. To understand current advances in analyzing extremes, a systematic review of online literature was conducted using PRISMA framework. The review covered several aspects of analysis considered in literature like time series types, non-stationarity detection techniques, frequency analysis (FA) category, probability distribution types, covariates used, parameter estimation and model selection techniques. Results indicate that AMS (71.7 %), Mann-Kendall non-stationarity detection test (70.8 %), GEV distribution (41.4 %), ML parameter estimation (34.6 %) and model selection AIC (30.0 %) were mostly applied. Non-stationary alongside stationary FA was carried out most (82 %) and non-stationary models outperformed the stationary ones. Time was used as a covariate in most studies (50.5 %) compared to anthropogenic (7.1 %), local-scale (11.4 %) and large-scale (31.0 %) climate covariates. Effective hydrological extremes management requires an understanding of their non-stationarity in a changing environment.
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