Density-dependence and different dimensions of changing weather shape adult abundance patterns of common mosquito species (Diptera: Culicidae) in Bloomington, Indiana, USA

Understanding the factors driving changes in mosquito abundance are key to quantify the risk they pose as vectors of pathogens. Here, to study the impacts of weather changes and density-dependent regulation on mosquito species abundance, we used season long weekly time series of Aedes japonicus (Theobald), Aedes triseriatus (Say), Aedes vexans (Meigen), Anopheles punctipennis (Say), Coquillettidia perturbans (Walker), and Culex pipiens L., common mosquito species in the Bloomington, IN, USA, area. We use the forced Ricker model to estimate population growth and density-dependence parameters, as well as the forcing by weather variables. We found that weather factors important for the population dynamics of these species were different. We found that Cx. pipiens population dynamics was not associated with any weather variables, while Ae. japonicus, Ae. triseriatus and Cq. perturbans were forced by relative humidity, Ae. vexans by SD of rainfall, and An. punctipennis by the kurtosis of temperature. These results illustrate the diversity of ways in which mosquitoes can respond to changing weather patterns and highlight the need for a more nuanced understanding of how mosquitoes respond to climate change by coupling field studies with mathematical modeling.