衡量美国货币噪音冲击

IF 1.3 4区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Economic Inquiry Pub Date : 2024-10-22 DOI:10.1111/ecin.13262

Yi-Hua Wu, Ching-Chong Lai

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引用次数: 0

摘要

代理人对未来货币政策变化的信念影响他们当前的决策。然而，这些期望可能并不总是在未来实现。本研究表明，货币基本面冲击（与预期一致的外生变化）稳定了产出和通胀，而噪音冲击（未来无法实现的偏见信念）增加了经济波动。此外，放大金融摩擦的因素——企业家的资本回报和央行的无风险利率之间的差距——可以增加与这两种类型的货币政策冲击相关的预期效应。

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Measuring the U.S. monetary noise shocks

Agents' beliefs regarding future monetary policy changes influence their current decisions. However, these expectations may not always materialize in the future. This study shows that the monetary fundamental shocks (exogenous changes consistent with expectations) stabilize output and inflation, while the noise shocks (biased beliefs that fail to be realized in the future) increase economic fluctuations. Moreover, factors that amplify financial frictions—the spread between the capital return of entrepreneurs and the risk-free interest rate of a central bank—can increase anticipation effects associated with these two types of monetary policy shocks.

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来源期刊

Economic Inquiry ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

3.80

自引率

5.60%

发文量

期刊介绍： Published since 1962, (formerly Western Economic Journal), EI is widely regarded as one of the top scholarly journals in its field. Besides containing research on all economics topic areas, a principal objective is to make each article understandable to economists who are not necessarily specialists in the article topic area. Nine Nobel laureates are among EI long list of prestigious authors.