Integrating the Confluence Model and I³ Model to predict sexual assault perpetration intentions.

Objective: Sexual assault perpetration is widespread among young men. According to the Confluence Model, hostile masculinity and impersonal sex are trait-level factors associated with sexual assault perpetration likelihood. Additionally, state-level factors, including alcohol intoxication, current emotions, and ability to modulate one's emotions, have been tied to sexual assault perpetration via the I3 Model. This study integrates these trait- and state-level factors into a single model to enhance its predictive power and better inform future interventions.

Method: Data were collected from 2019 to 2023. Young, single, nonproblem drinking men, who had been sexually active with a woman within the past month (N = 282; 34.8% people of color), completed background questionnaires and were randomly assigned to a positive or negative mood induction, and then to consume alcohol (target peak breath alcohol concentration = .08%) or a control beverage before projecting themselves into a hypothetical, sexual scenario. Then, men indicated their likelihood of engaging in nonconsensual sexual activity with their hypothetical partner (i.e., perpetration likelihood).

Results: A moderated-mediation structural equation model demonstrated that trait hostile masculinity and impersonal sex interacted with state alcohol intoxication and mood to predict state sexual arousal. State sexual arousal subsequently interacted with state impulsivity to predict state difficulties modulating emotions, which predicted perpetration likelihood during the hypothetical scenario.

Conclusions: Integrating trait- and state-level factors is of paramount importance to understanding sexual assault prevention. Interventions targeting emotional modulation during sexual situations may be especially useful among aroused or impulsive individuals, due to their mood, alcohol intoxication, and attitudes regarding hostile masculinity and impersonal sex. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2025 APA, all rights reserved).